Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

.SHORT TERM...
3H UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE IN SW NM MVG E...SHRTWV TROF ALSO NOTED
LIFTING NE INTO W CENTRAL TX. SB INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED ALONG A HOBBS...TO PECOS...TO BIG BEND LINE AS INDICATED BY
MSAS LI/S AND DEVELOPMENT SEEN ON KMAF RADAR. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCD WITH
THESE STORMS LOOKS TO BE PRIMARY CONCERN AND SLOW MVG STORM DEVELOP
WITHIN PW/S OVER AN INCH. SCT POPS APPROPRIATE ACRS TRANS PECOS AND
PROBABLY MOST PB THIS EVENING. AREAS OF RN COOLED AIR AND DWPNTS N60
OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACRS PB.
OTHERWISE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT EXPECTED TO
REMAIN N OF CWFA THRU 12Z FRI WITH LIGHTISH SE WINDS.

.LONG TERM...
THE AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER
LAYERS.  WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION IN
WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

HAVE INCREASED THE POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
TOMORROW.  EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  EXPECT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE FROM.  WILL ALSO HAVE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW TO HELP WITH
LARGE-SCALE LIFT.  THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO POPS OVER THE WEEKEND
WAS TO INCREASE THE PERMIAN BASIN TO SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY.  HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING HIGHS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD-COVER...MOISTURE..AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP.

HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE TUE/WED TIMEFRAME AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL STAY IN THIS MOIST...UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH.  ONLY INCREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER...SINCE WE ARE STILL 5 DAYS AWAY.  MADE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             66  89  68  88 /  20  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM               64  91  66  91 /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 68  88  70  89 /  30  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX          66  90  68  90 /  30  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX         63  84  64  84 /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                  64  90  64  89 /  30  30  30  20
MARFA TX                  55  84  59  85 /  40  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   67  89  68  89 /  30  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                 67  89  68  90 /  30  20  20  20
WINK TX                   69  94  70  94 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

49/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
438 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

UPDATED TO ADD MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-251000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
438 PM CDT (338 PM MDT) THU JUN 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS
AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ARROYOS...DRAWS...AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS.  LASTLY...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED
IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf.