Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
941 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

.UPDATE...
ISSUED NEW ZONES TO REDUCE POPS OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA. LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO FEED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF FORECAST
AREA... THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
DEVELOP ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SWEEPING ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO FEED CONVECTION IN EASTERN BREWSTER
MOVING INTO WESTERN TERRELL COUNTY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL
PREVIOUSLY OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS APPEARS TO BE WINDING DOWN FOR
THE NIGHT. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
18Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE MOISTURE HAS PUSHED WELL INTO THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CWA WITH A DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE OF 24F NOTED AT KGDP AND
59F AT KCNM. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE AND EXPAND ACROSS
THE BIG BEND INTO THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS GRADUALLY BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY
WEAK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN...UPPER TRANS PECOS...DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND
REGION...WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED V LOOK WHICH FAVORS DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND WE WILL
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF BOTH HAIL AND WINDS IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED FROM EARLIER FORECAST.  UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TX COAST...WHICH HAD BEEN RETROGRADING OVER THE PAST
TWO DAYS TOWARD THE CWA WILL START TO EJECT NEWD BY THURSDAY AS IT
BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE WESTERLIES AND SHEARS NORTHEAST.  UPPER
RIDGE OVER NRN MEXICO LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL EXPAND AS A RESULT.
MEANWHILE...BOTH THE ETA AND GFS MODELS AGREE THAT THE CA TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...PROBABLY DUE TO THE EXPANSION OF AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.
EXPECT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO WRAP AROUND THIS UPPER TROUGH AND
MEXICAN RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
ISOLD TS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE WEEKEND.  PRECIP POPS WILL
BE KEPT FAIRLY LOW AS MOST OF THESE EPISODES WILL BE HIT OR MISS.
FURTHER OUT INTO DAYS 5-7...THE ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT MAY REACH THE NRN CWA
BY THURSDAY.  COUPLE THIS FEATURE WITH THE DRYLINE AND WE MAY SEE
SOME TSRA IF ENOUGH MOISTURE CAN CONVERGE ALONG IT.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S THROUGH THE CENTURY MARK
EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             73  99  70  98 /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               70 103  68 100 /  30  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 75  96  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          74 101  71 100 /  30  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX         69  97  65  94 /  10   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                  71 102  68  99 /  30  20  10  10
MARFA TX                  62  92  60  91 /  40  10  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   74  99  70  99 /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                 74 100  70  99 /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                   76 106  72 103 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-170900-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
300 PM CDT (200 PM MDT) WED JUN 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF A
LAMESA...MIDLAND...FORT STOCKTON...PANTHER JUNCTION LINE.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ARROYOS...CREEKS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WEST OF A LAMESA...MIDLAND...FORT STOCKTON...
PANTHER JUNCTION LINE IS REQUESTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1036 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 WSW BRONCO           33.20N 103.22W
06/16/2004  60 MPH           LEA                NM   PUBLIC

            WIND GUSTS TORE PIECES OFF ROOF.

0726 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 ENE ALPINE           30.42N 103.51W
06/16/2004                   BREWSTER           TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            BLACK CREEK RUNNING 100 YARDS WIDE. SCOURING TREES AND
            BOULDERS FROM STREAMBANKS.

0734 PM     HAIL             10 WSW BRONCO           33.20N 103.22W
06/16/2004  2.50 INCH        LEA                NM   PUBLIC

0737 PM     HAIL             PANTHER JUNCTION        29.33N 103.20W
06/16/2004  1.00 INCH        BREWSTER           TX   PARK/FOREST SRVC

0745 PM     HAIL             PANTHER JUNCTION        29.33N 103.20W
06/16/2004  1.75 INCH        BREWSTER           TX   PARK/FOREST SRVC

&&

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