Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
147 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004

.SHORT TERM...
DRY LINE CURRENTLY MIXING TO A LAMESA...MIDLAND...TO JUST EAST OF
FORT STOCKTON LINE. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND/OR LOWER TRANS PECOS EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE DRY LINE COMES TO A HALT AND THEN RETREATS
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT TO THE WEST TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO BORDER. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO WORK BACK WESTWARD...MAYBE NOT AS FAR WEST AS LAST
NIGHT WITH A MORE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
BEEFED UP WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE
TO OTHER GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW INTO FRIDAY AS M0DEST WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
FAVOR A EWD POSITION OF DRYLINE BY LATE PM AND THUS WILL REMOVE MOST
POPS. AMPLIFIED LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE ENUF
FOR AT EAST WIDESPREAD M90S ACRS PB.  DRYLINE TO SLOSH W IN THE
EVENING AS NICE SHRTWV TROF MOVES INTO SWRN U.S.. SAT DRYLINE WILL
MAINTAIN A MUCH FARTHER W POSITION AS BACKED LOW LEVEL DEVELOPS
AHEAD DEEPER MID LEVEL FLOW. WEAK SRN BRANCH OF WLY REMAINS ACTIVE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROF DEVELOPS ACRS SWRN U.S. SPITTING OUT
MINOR SHRTWV/S INTO W TX WITH DRYLINE LIKELY SETTING UP ACRS
CENTRAL PB. THEREAFTER SOMEWHAT OF A CONFUSED PATTERN ATTEMPTS TO
DEVELOP WITH A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 4 CORNERS AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROF TRIES TO UNDERCUT HIGH AND MOVES E. ECMWF MORE STUBBORN WITH
RIDGE AND TEND FAVOR ITS EVOLUTION KEEPING MAIN TROF WELL W MON/TUE.
THIS WILL FAVOR MTN DIURNAL POPS. STRONG BAND OF MID LEVEL WLYS
ATTEMPTS TO SEND WEAK BOUNDARY S...FCST ALREADY HAS ISOLD POPS TO
ACCOUNT AND WILL NOT CHANGE. WED/THUR BOTH ECMWF/GFSLR SUGGEST A
SHARP WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACRS TX. ATTP NOT
CONFIDENT ENUF TO MAKE DRASTIC CHANGES IN FCST AND WILL REFLECT ONLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS COMING TO TOGETHER ACRS THE W WITH 25KT 10000
FT WINDS IN PLACE. WARM DOWNSLOPE WINDS SENDING RH/S BLO 15 PCT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS QUICKLY
DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. POOR RECOVERY TONIGHT ACRS MTNS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             71  96  70  95 /  10   0   0  30
CARLSBAD NM               67  99  68  97 /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                 72  98  71  93 /  10  10  10  30
FORT STOCKTON TX          70 100  70  97 /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX         65  91  65  90 /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                  68  96  66  96 /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                  56  90  57  89 /  10   0   0  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   70  97  70  96 /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                 70  98  70  96 /   0   0   0  20
WINK TX                   71 105  70 104 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING TX258 TIL 00Z.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING ZONE 112 TIL 00Z.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
150 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-111000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
150 PM CDT (1250 PM MDT) THU JUN 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 20 MPH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE GROWTH AND
SPREAD EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND THE
PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION EAST
OF A GAIL...BIG SPRING...RANKIN...TO MARFA LINE. ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT CAN FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.