Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LVL RIDGE CENTERED OVR KELP IS RESULTING IN TEMPS AT 18Z NEAR
WHAT THE HIGHS WERE YESTERDAY.  RIDGE IS PROGGED TO MEANDER INTO SW
OLD MEXICO THRU 12Z SAT...ALLOWING A SERIES OF MINOR SHRTWVS TO
ROTATE AROUND IT AND SE INTO THE NW CWA.  BOTH THE ETA AND GFS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION OMTNS IN CNTRL NM...BEFORE BRINGING
IT SE W/THE SHRTWVS OVERNIGHT...SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
NOCTURNAL STORMS.  THIS TO BE AIDED BY A 40+KT H85 LLJ DEVELOPING BY
06Z TO PROVIDE INFLOW.  AS SUCH...LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE NEEDED
W/CURRENT WX GRIDS.  FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...MODELS WARM UP THE PBL BY
ABOUT 6 DEG C BY 12Z SAT.  W/SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S WELL INTO
NM...AND S-SE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT...LOWS SHOULD BE ABOUT A CAT WARMER
THAN THIS MORNING/S.  THUS...WILL STICK ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...CLOSE TO GFS NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...
FLAT UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN LOW ORDER POPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR
NORTH LATE SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF MCS PROPAGATING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLIPPING THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN SATURDAY
NIGHT PRIOR TO WEAKENING/DISSIPATION.  LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING
/33C AT 850MB/ SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SEVERAL TRIPLE DIGIT MAX
TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TEXAS...WITH THE FRONT BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES/COUNTIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCES /20-25 PCT POPS/ FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT ALONG/NORTH OF A BIG SPRING TO MIDLAND TO
BALMORHEA LINE.  AS WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...
FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLUS UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT.  SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

A STRONG/AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE WEST COAST ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH/DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  WILL CARRY LOW ORDER POPS FOR
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS DRYLINE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INFLUX ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPSLOPE FLOW
VICINITY THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS STRUGGLES TO OVERCOME A STRONG CAP
ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             73  98  70  96 /  20  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM               69 104  68  98 /  30  10  20  10
DRYDEN TX                 74  98  69  98 /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          73 101  69  99 /  10  10  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX         67  96  67  92 /  30  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                  67 102  68  96 /  30  10  20  10
MARFA TX                  60  92  59  94 /  20  10  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   73 100  71  96 /  20  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                 72 100  71  96 /  20  10  20  10
WINK TX                   73 107  71 102 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

44/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
438 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-051100-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
438 PM CDT (338 PM MDT) FRI JUN 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MAINLY FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS...AND BIG BEND REGION.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WINDS GUSTING
OVER 60 MPH.

IN ADDITION...THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
OF UP TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ARROYOS...DRAWS...STREAMS...AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.