Flash Flood Warning 60, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 270449
FFSMAF
NMC015-270615-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1049 PM MDT SAT JUN 26 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1215 AM MDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
EDDY COUNTY...

AT 1040 PM MDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED MINOR 
FLOODING OCCURRING ON AREA ROADS...AND DRAWS FILLING UP AROUND HOPE.

AT 1044 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATED A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN 
ACROSS MUCH OF EDDY COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT BETWEEN ONE AND ONE 
AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 
CARLSBAD. THE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3295 10450 3294 10479 3228 10480 3228 10434
      3293 10418

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
200 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

.SHORT TERM...
OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA TODAY.  RIDGE IS CENTERED
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA WITH THE AXIS RUNNING FROM NEAR THE AZ/NM
BORDER NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE OR/ID BORDER.  THIS SETUP PUTS OUR
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.  HAD AN MCS MOVE INTO EDDY COUNTY LAST
NIGHT IN THIS FLOW AND DROP 2 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN AT THE CNM ASOS
SITE IN ABOUT AN HOUR.  THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIED...POSSIBLY DUE TO
RELATIVELY WEAK 850MB FLOW OF 15KT TO 20KT.

ETA/GFS BOTH PICKING UP ON A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST IN
THIS NORTHWEST FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT.  WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND NM
MOUNTAINS LIKELY GETTING TS AGAIN TODAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION
TONIGHT WITH AN MCS FORMING IN NM AND MOVING INTO THE CWA.  THERE IS
A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT OF QPF IN MODELS.  ETA IS FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE GFS.  GFS BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE VAN HORN/PRESIDIO
VALLEY AREA WHILE THE ETA SHOWS RAIN FALLING OVER SOUTHEASTERN NM
AGAIN.  850MB WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER...SO IF ONE DOES
FORM...IT MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER THAN LAST NIGHT.  WILL RAISE POPS
TO CHANCE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NM AND OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN WRN NM SUNDAY MAINTAINS NW FLOW ALOFT ACRS W
TX WHILE COOL NRN STREAM FLOW ACRS NRN PLAINS KEEPS TRYING TO PUSH
BOUNDARIES S INTO RGN. DEFINITIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS SETS UP
ACRS NM MTNS. AS SUCH MTNS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
TSTMS AT LEAST INTO MONDAY. GFS ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT BRINGING
COMPLEXES OUT OF NM MTNS LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY NIGHTS WITH SFC BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACRS THE N. BOUNDARY TRIES TO PUSH FARTHER S AND W INTO
TUES WHICH WILL SERVE TO PUSH MSTR W/INCREASE UPSLOPE FLOW ACRS
MTNS WHERE MODEST 7H-5H LR/S (7C/KM) WILL BE IN PLACE. BY TUES MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS WORKED EWD ALLOWING FOR A BETTER/DEEPER
TROPICAL MSTR FETCH ACRS W TX/NM AS GFS PERSISTENTLY GENERATES
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. ATTP INCLINED TO GO SCT POPS ACRS TRANS PECOS
INTO WED IN A SEEMINGLY WET PATTERN. WITH RIDGE AXIS ESTABLISHED W
7H TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW 11C ACRS PB...THUS UNSEASONALLY COOL
TEMPS TO CONTINUE. MEANWHILE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE ACRS THE ERN GULF
WILL BE SLOWLY BUILDING W FINALLY PUSHING INTO W TX/NRN MEXICO BY
FRIDAY BUT STILL FAR ENUF S TO MAINTAIN A WEAKER NW MID LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN ACRS W TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             65  87  67  88 /  30  30  20  20
CARLSBAD NM               63  91  65  91 /  30  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                 69  93  71  91 /  20  30  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX          66  91  69  89 /  20  30  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX         60  84  62  85 /  30  40  30  30
HOBBS NM                  62  88  63  87 /  30  30  30  30
MARFA TX                  56  85  61  84 /  30  40  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   64  88  67  87 /  30  30  20  20
ODESSA TX                 65  89  67  87 /  30  30  20  20
WINK TX                   66  96  69  95 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-271000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
250 PM CDT (150 PM MDT) SAT JUN 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
ACROSS AREAS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.  THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.  IN
ADDITION...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.