Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 211151
FFSMAF
TXC383-211315-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
650 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 815 AM CDT FOR SOUTHERN 
REAGAN COUNTY...

AT 640 AM CDT...THE TEXAS HIGHWAY DEPARTMENT REPORTED FM 1676 WAS 
CLOSED FROM THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 67 AND FM 1676...WHICH IS 4 
MILES WEST OF BIG LAKE...AND TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...MINOR 
FLOODING OF ROADWAYS WAS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE TOWN OF BIG LAKE.  

AT 645 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN REAGAN COUNTY. HOWEVER... 
DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATED 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAD 
FALLEN ALONG HIGHWAY 67...5 MILES WEST OF BIG LAKE SINCE 200 AM CDT 
AND 5 TO 6 INCHES HAD FALLEN 8 MILES TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF BIG 
LAKE DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME. 

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...RUNOFF FROM THE 
HEAVY RAINS WILL TAKE AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR TO SUBSIDE. THEREFORE... 
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN REAGAN COUNTY WILL CONTINUE 
UNTIL 815 AM CDT.  

TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3111 10167 3111 10130 3149 10129 3149 10164

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...AIDED BY 60+F SURFACE DEWPOINT
BANKED ALONG THE TX/NM MOUNTAINS AND BENEATH 40-45KT LOW LEVEL JET.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN TONIGHT.  MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR WILL INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INITIALLY
ALONG THE DAVIS MOUNTAIN THEN SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE TRANS
PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN AS CAP WEAKENS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY RESULT IN ONE OR TWO STORMS
APPROACHING SEVERE THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY WHILE THE WESTERLIES SAG
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS.  UPPER RIDGE WILL MAKE
A COMEBACK BY MIDWEEK...BUT FURTHER WEST OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS AN
UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER VORTEX IMPINGES ON THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST U.S.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY DROPPING TEMPERATURES
TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  NATURALLY...CLOUD COVER AND A
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES THIS LOW.  THERE
APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION...SO KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN GOING FOR MOST AREAS.  THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND LOW
LEVEL FOCUS WILL COINCIDE WITH ANOTHER AMONGST MANY SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO TRAVERSE THE AREA.

THEREAFTER...WE/LL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK NEAR NORMAL...WHILE
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL EXIST OVER MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             97  67  83  65 /  20  30  40   0
CARLSBAD NM              102  66  83  65 /  10  10  30  20
DRYDEN TX                 94  71  88  70 /  30  30  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX          97  68  85  68 /  20  30  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX         93  62  76  60 /  10  10  30  30
HOBBS NM                  98  66  83  64 /  20  20  40  10
MARFA TX                  87  61  80  59 /  30  20  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   97  67  84  65 /  20  30  40  10
ODESSA TX                 96  67  85  65 /  20  30  40  10
WINK TX                  102  71  90  68 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

01/67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
500 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-212100-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
500 AM CDT (400 AM MDT) MON JUN 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
FROM ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER NEAR CANDELARIA TO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS...BIG BEND REGION...AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS AND SOUTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1112 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 SW MIDLAND           31.90N 102.20W
06/20/2004  60 MPH           MIDLAND            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ON FM 1788 SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. TX DPS RPT.

&&

TL