Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2004

Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

April 5, 2004Scurry County, Texas

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this flash flood warning at Apr 5, 2004, 10:11 PM CDT for Scurry County, Texas. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 5, 2004, 10:11 PM CDT (03:11 UTC)
Expired: Apr 6, 2004, 1:15 AM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Scurry County, TX

The radar

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 148 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 39 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -49 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 549 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 124 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 108 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KMAF 060311
FFWMAF
TXC415-060615-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1011 PM CDT MON APR 5 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SCURRY COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS

* UNTIL 115 AM CDT

* AT 1007 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
  THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SCURRY COUNTY.
  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO  
  SCURRY COUNTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 1230 AM CDT. MOVEMENT     
  WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 
  INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE 
  WARNED AREA...WHICH MAY CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
  SNYDER...FLUVANNA...DERMOTT...IRA...DUNN...HERMLEIGH...AND 
  INADALE

TO REPORT FLOODING... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS
IMMINENT. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS...CREEKS...AND OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF
UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3294 10116 3254 10117 3254 10068 3294 10068

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Apr 5, 2:16 PM CDT, 7 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 5, 2:16 PM CDT, 7 hours 55 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
216 PM CDT MON APR 5 2004

.SHORT TERM...
A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA...MEXICO WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AND GIVEN
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT.  THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS REGIONS...TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.  THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
WAS SHOWING CLEARING SKIES AND SUBSEQUENT CU DEVELOPMENT...WHILE
SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREA.  THIS COMBINED WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND A 90KT 300MB JET WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF
SEVERE STORMS FOR TONIGHT.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE LATE
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO BE TRANSLATING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA.  WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THINK STEEP LAPSE RATES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND INCIDENTAL LIFT
FROM PASSING UPPER LOW SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION...
BUT ONLY OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE AND A LITTLE DRIER ALOFT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEVERELY LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCE DURING THIS TIME.  WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.  UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE MAXES A LITTLE
TUESDAY SINCE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD AT BAY DUE TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM SOAKED GROUND.  TEMPERATURES AND VISIBILITY
COULD CRATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST.
WILL LOWER TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE OUT WEST...AND MENTION AREAS OF FOG
FOR NOW.

AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS CLOSE
ENOUGH WEDNESDAY TO WARRANT LEAVING SHOTGUN SLIGHT POPS AREAWIDE.
WILL ALSO LEAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
PASSAGE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM.  PREFER TO LEAVE THE FORECAST THIS WAY
SINCE THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REGARDING TIMING
AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD.

FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES THEREAFTER...AS ANOTHER...STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONUS BY
SATURDAY.  WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER THE AREA AND PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL
FOCUS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT...NOT TO MENTION SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             50  72  51  74 /  70  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               45  74  46  76 /  50  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                 50  79  55  82 /  80  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          49  75  55  79 /  70  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX         43  69  48  73 /  50  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                  44  72  47  74 /  60  20  10  10
MARFA TX                  42  69  41  74 /  60  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   49  72  50  74 /  70  20   0  10
ODESSA TX                 48  72  50  74 /  70  20   0  10
WINK TX                   47  77  54  82 /  60  20   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF WEST TEXAS.
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW
     MEXICO.

&&

67/06

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 5, 3:00 PM CDT, 7 hours 11 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CDT MON APR 5 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-061000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
300 PM CDT (200 PM MDT) MON APR 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE WESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN...THE TRANS PECOS REGION AND THE BIG BEND AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAIN.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE REGION WITH AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLASH FLOODING THREATEN YOUR AREA.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUESTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 5, 9:45 PM CDT, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
945 PM CDT MON APR 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     HAIL             4 N STUDY BUTTE         29.39N 103.53W
04/05/2004  0.75 INCH        BREWSTER           TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM CROSSED HIGHWAY 118.

0515 PM     HAIL             BALMORHEA               30.98N 103.74W
04/05/2004  1.75 INCH        REEVES             TX   PUBLIC

            PECOS COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED AT 915 PM LOCAL TIME THAT
            FM 1450 FROM COYANOSA TO PECOS IS CLOSED DUE TO STANDING
            WATER AND HAIL STILL ON THE ROAD.

0557 PM     HAIL             GREENWOOD               32.03N 101.90W
04/05/2004  0.88 INCH        MIDLAND            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0620 PM     TSTM WND GST     HEATH CANYON            29.45N 102.82W
04/05/2004  70 MPH           BREWSTER           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

0620 PM     HAIL             HEATH CANYON            29.45N 102.82W
04/05/2004  4.00 INCH        BREWSTER           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HOUSE WINDOWS AND CARS WERE HEAVILY DAMAGED.

0920 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BIG SPRING              32.25N 101.48W
04/05/2004                   HOWARD             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HEAVY RAINS FORCED ROAD CLOSURES INSIDE TOWN.

&&

JPC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 5, 8:31 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Howard	3 hr
Apr 5, 9:47 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Mitchell	3 hr
Apr 6, 6:10 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Gaines	4 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2004 Every flash flood warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.