Flash Flood Warning 204, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
420 AM CDT WED OCT 6 2004

DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE/FLASH FLOOD EVENT EDITS FOR THIS FORECAST
UPDATE ARE RESTRICTED TO DAY 1 GRIDS. THE POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE
AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER AROSS THE FA. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROPAGATE EAST VERY SLOWLY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY 12Z
THURSDAY.

THE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES ATTM IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH 18Z TODAY AS ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX PROPAGATES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO ERUPT OVER THE WESTERN CWA
LATE TODAY AS DEEP FORCING/LIFT AGAIN INCREASES IN AREA OF DPVA...
AIDED BY THE NOSE OF ANOTHER JET MAXIMA ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS AND
FLASH FLOODING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COPIOUS MOISTURE REMAINES IN PLACE. INSTABILITY
AXIS WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE WESTERN FA WHERE INSOLATION WILL
LIKELY BE MOST PRONOUNCED. INCREASING LARGE SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING
AND LLJ SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FA
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES. GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND EXPECTED HIGH RAIN
EFFICIENCY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             76  57  74  56 /  80  70  50  30
CARLSBAD NM               76  57  74  56 /  60  80  40  30
DRYDEN TX                 77  61  77  60 /  30  50  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX          77  59  75  58 /  60  70  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX         73  53  71  54 /  50  70  40  20
HOBBS NM                  75  57  72  55 /  50  90  50  30
MARFA TX                  75  50  71  50 /  50  70  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   76  58  75  57 /  70  80  50  30
ODESSA TX                 76  61  75  58 /  70  80  50  30
WINK TX                   83  61  82  55 /  60  90  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES 12Z THU.
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES 12Z THU.

&&

10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
536 AM CDT WED OCT 6 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-062030-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
536 AM CDT (436 AM MDT) WED OCT 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN IMPACT PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LATER TODAY.

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE MORNING.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE
INTO A LARGE COMPLEX AND SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITIES OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN THE AREA.