Flash Flood Warning 203, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 061203
FFSMAF
TXC329-061400-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
702 AM CDT WED OCT 6 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR MIDLAND
COUNTY...

AT 655 AM CDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS AND THE BROADCAST MEDIA CONTINUED 
TO REPORT FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF MIDLAND COUNTY. HIGH WATER 
WAS REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF STATE HIGHWAY 158 AND INTERSTATE 
20 AND SEVERAL OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG BUSINESS INTERSTATE 20 
INCLUDING THE INTERSECTION WITH MIDLAND DRIVE. ALTHOUGH LIGHT TO 
MODERATE RAINFALL IS ENDING IN THE WARNED AREA...RUNOFF WILL 
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGH WATER RUNNING THROUGH MANY LOW WATER 
CROSSINGS.   

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE. 

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3166 10229 3208 10228 3208 10178 3166 10177

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
420 AM CDT WED OCT 6 2004

DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE/FLASH FLOOD EVENT EDITS FOR THIS FORECAST
UPDATE ARE RESTRICTED TO DAY 1 GRIDS. THE POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE
AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER AROSS THE FA. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROPAGATE EAST VERY SLOWLY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY 12Z
THURSDAY.

THE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES ATTM IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH 18Z TODAY AS ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX PROPAGATES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO ERUPT OVER THE WESTERN CWA
LATE TODAY AS DEEP FORCING/LIFT AGAIN INCREASES IN AREA OF DPVA...
AIDED BY THE NOSE OF ANOTHER JET MAXIMA ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS AND
FLASH FLOODING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COPIOUS MOISTURE REMAINES IN PLACE. INSTABILITY
AXIS WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE WESTERN FA WHERE INSOLATION WILL
LIKELY BE MOST PRONOUNCED. INCREASING LARGE SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING
AND LLJ SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FA
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES. GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND EXPECTED HIGH RAIN
EFFICIENCY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             76  57  74  56 /  80  70  50  30
CARLSBAD NM               76  57  74  56 /  60  80  40  30
DRYDEN TX                 77  61  77  60 /  30  50  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX          77  59  75  58 /  60  70  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX         73  53  71  54 /  50  70  40  20
HOBBS NM                  75  57  72  55 /  50  90  50  30
MARFA TX                  75  50  71  50 /  50  70  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   76  58  75  57 /  70  80  50  30
ODESSA TX                 76  61  75  58 /  70  80  50  30
WINK TX                   83  61  82  55 /  60  90  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES 12Z THU.
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES 12Z THU.

&&

10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CDT TUE OCT 5 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-061000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
245 PM CDT (145 PM MDT) TUE OCT 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TONIGHT.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL BE MOST
LIKELY TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.  A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVE
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...
A NUMBER OF FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
TONIGHT.  VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 0 TO 6KM AGL WILL INCREASE TO THE 40KT
TO 45KT RANGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.  SHEAR OF THIS
MAGNITUDE IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO FORM WITH
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.  THE HIGHEST VALUES OF SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...SO EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN THIS AREA.  THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO INCREASE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT OVER THE AREA AS IT NEARS THE REGION.  INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SUNSHINE HAS BEEN ABLE TO WARM THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 60F DEGREES.  LAPSE RATES
GREATER THAN 7C/KM IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LAYER WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1147 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             25 SW CARLSBAD          32.15N 104.54W
10/05/2004  0.75 INCH        EDDY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7 MILES NORTH OF THE EDDY/CULBERSON COUNTY LINE.

0738 PM     TORNADO          18 W PECOS              31.41N 103.80W
10/05/2004                   REEVES             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN.

0958 PM     HAIL             LOVINGTON               32.95N 103.35W
10/05/2004  0.50 INCH        LEA                NM   OTHER FEDERAL

            38 KNOT WIND AND HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANIED MARBLE HAIL.

1005 PM     HAIL             6 SE LOVINGTON          32.88N 103.28W
10/05/2004  0.88 INCH        LEA                NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL HAIL BETWEEN HOBBS AND LOVINGTON AT 66 MILE MARKER
            ON STATE HIGHWAY 18.

1105 PM     HAIL             MENTONE                 31.71N 103.60W
10/05/2004  0.88 INCH        LOVING             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANIED HAIL.

&&

JPC