Flash Flood Warning 180, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 302025
FFSMAF
NMC015-302300-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
225 PM MDT THU SEP 30 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 500 PM MDT FOR EDDY
COUNTY...

AT 220 PM MDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED NUMEROUS 
ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO FLOWING WATER FROM EARLIER HEAVY 
RAINFALL. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES ADDITIONAL 
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN EDDY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY 
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE COUNTY THROUGH 4 
PM MDT PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE AROUND POLICE BARRICADES ON FLOODED 
ROADWAYS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE. TURN AROUND... DONT 
DROWN.

LAT...LON 3253 10382 3252 10371 3202 10372 3201 10484 3201 10484     
      3296 10483 3297 10380

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
946 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2004

.UPDATE...
HAVE SENT AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS/FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
BROAD PRECIP SHIELD NOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN ZONES. UPPED
COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS THOSE AREAS. A QUICK LOOK AT FORECAST DATA
SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN POPS REQUIRED FOR THIS EVENING...AS MODELS
INITIATE CONVETION ALONG A WEAK WIND SHIFT/TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE FA. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK AND INCLUDED MENTION
OF SEVERE IN ZONES OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BASIN.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LAST DAY OF THE RAINIEST MONTH IN MANY YEARS ENDS WITH A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN NM THIS MORNING INTO WESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME FLASH FLOODING.  THEREFORE
DID NOT HAVE TIME TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST.  PRECIP DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
NEVADA WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE AND INTO THE AREA.
GFS... WHICH HAS BEEN DOING BETTER JOB RECENTLY WITH WET PATTERN...
INDICATES MORNING STORM COMPLEX WILL ROLL ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHTER PRECIP EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS LOWER TRANS PECOS.  WILL INCREASE POPS TODAY AND MAY
HAVE SOME LINGERING PRECIP THIS EVENING MAINLY EAST AS A SHORTWAVE
STRETCHES OUT AND DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA.  SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK SEVERE
NORTHEAST OF A SEMINOLE... ANDREWS... TO MIDLAND LINE... NOT PLANNING
ON MENTIONING IN ZONES BUT WILL IN HWO.

AS FAR AS UPPER TROUGH MODELS SHEAR IT APART TAKING THE NORTHERN
PORTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY... WHILE
RETROGRADING THE SOUTHERN PORTION BACK OVER THE PACIFIC.  ALL THAT TO
SAY THE BEST ENERGY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF TEXAS BUT STILL MAY HAVE A
SHORTWAVE OR TWO.

SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRAG EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND HELP
PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND SET THE WAY FOR
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  ETA INDICATING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CWA BETWEEN SUNSET FRIDAY AND MIDNIGHT PUSHING TO THE RIO GRANDE BY
MORNING SATURDAY.  FRONT HAS GOOD COLD PUSH TO IT AND SHOULD SLAM
INTO THE AREA WITH A GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND... MODELS DEVELOP PRECIP
MAINLY ALONG EASTERN PORTIONS OF FRONT.  BY MIDDAY SATURDAY GRADIENT
SHOULD RELAX SOME WITH WIND SLOWING DOWN.

SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WILL HAVE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING AND SOME CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP.
WILL TWEAK TEMPS BUT LEAVE REST OF EXTENDED FORECAST AS IS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             82  62  83  55 /  60  20  20  10
CARLSBAD NM               80  57  82  54 /  20  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                 85  62  86  62 /  30  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX          84  61  84  58 /  30  20  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX         74  54  76  49 /  20  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                  82  58  82  52 /  30  10   0   0
MARFA TX                  77  50  78  51 /  30  20   0  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   82  61  84  56 /  50  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                 82  62  84  56 /  50  20  10  10
WINK TX                   88  61  90  57 /  30  20   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

72

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
500 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-302000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
500 AM CDT (400 AM MDT) THU SEP 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...GENERALLY EAST OF A
SEMINOLE...ANDREWS...MIDLAND...GARDEN CITY LINE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND THE PERMIAN BASIN...WHERE RAINFALL
HAS BEEN HEAVIEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS TODAY.