Flash Flood Warning 150, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 262205
FFSMAF
NMC025-270245-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
405 PM MDT SUN SEP 26 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 845 PM MDT FOR CENTRAL LEA
COUNTY...

AT 356 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH 
FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA.  AT 350 PM MDT...A TRAINED SPOTTER 
REPORTED STREET FLOODING ACROSS MAIN STREET IN HOBBS.  STANDING 
WATER...WITH DEPTHS AS MUCH AS ONE AND A HALF FEET WERE REPORTED 
ACROSS SOME LOW LYING AREAS.  THIS IS A SERIOUS SITUATION.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE. TURN
AROUND... DONT DROWN.

TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3204 10360 3204 10313 3339 10319 3327 10354

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
320 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
THE 6 AND 12 HOUR MODEL PROGS OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ITS POSITION AS SEEN IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.
A LARGE AREA OF WARM TOP CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA PRESENTLY...AND WOULD EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE AND PERHAPS INTENSIFY
OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL ALOFT SEEN ON THE MORNING EPZ
500 MB UPPER AIR PLOT SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD AND JET DYNAMICS BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE CWA. GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED
FROM RAINS THE PAST THREE DAYS ARE ALREADY RECEIVING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING ACROSS EDDY AND LEA
COUNTIES IN NEW MEXICO...AND OVER BREWSTER...JEFF DAVIS...AND REEVES
COUNTIES IN TEXAS.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER VAL VERDE AND CROCKETT COUNTIES ARE PRESENTLY MOVING NORTH
NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PERMIAN BASIN.
BASED ON THIS AND EXPECTED RAINFALL LATER TONIGHT...HAVE ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.  BASED ON HOW WELL THE
MODELS DID WITH THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ALSO
BASED ON THE GFS PROG TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT JET ENERGY WEST OF THE LOW
CENTER...FEEL THAT THE SLOWER SOLUTION IS APPROPRIATE.  THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED WET PATTERN FOR SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.  MORE ZONAL MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BY THURSDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             58  72  57  77 /  50  60  40  50
CARLSBAD NM               56  72  55  75 / 100  50  40  40
DRYDEN TX                 62  76  61  80 /  60  50  40  50
FORT STOCKTON TX          60  73  58  75 /  70  60  30  60
GUADALUPE PASS TX         53  68  52  69 /  70  50  40  40
HOBBS NM                  57  70  55  73 /  80  50  40  50
MARFA TX                  50  69  51  71 /  80  50  30  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   59  72  57  75 /  50  60  30  50
ODESSA TX                 59  72  58  74 /  50  60  30  50
WINK TX                   61  72  59  75 /  70  60  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL COUNTIES THROUGH 10Z MONDAY MORNING.
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES THROUGH 10Z MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

67/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-271000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
230 PM CDT (130 PM MDT) SUN SEP 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.  HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN OVER MANY AREAS
SINCE FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION.  HEAVY RAINS TRAINING OVER THESE SAME
LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL AGGRAVATE FLASH FLOODING...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

RIVER LEVELS ON THE RIO GRANDE ARE ELEVATED DUE TO RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TO THE BIG BEND REGION SINCE SATURDAY.
A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE RIO GRANDE ARE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...WITH
ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf.