Flash Flood Warning 131, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 050445
FFSMAF
NMC025-050700-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1044 PM MDT SAT SEP 4 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM MDT FOR LEA COUNTY...

AT 1010 PM MDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED STREET 
FLOODING IN THE CITY OF HOBBS. AT 1039 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR HOBBS...SOUTH TO NEAR JAL...MOVING EAST AT 
30 MPH. 

ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS COMING TO AN END...RUNOFF FROM THE 
EARLIER HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND 
LOW LYING AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN AND NEAR HOBBS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO 
HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3206 10365 3201 10307 3351 10309 3355 10364

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
959 PM CDT SAT SEP 4 2004

.UPDATE...
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA GIVEN THE
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED WITH
EXTRA MOISTURE FROM T.S. HOWARD ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MINOR CHANGES TO DEW POINTS AND SKY COVER GRIDS
WERE ALSO MADE BASED ON THE LATEST OBS/SATELLITE DATA ALSO. ZONES
HAVE BEEN SENT AND THE REMAINING PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS BURNED OFF LATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER MUCH OF AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH THE HELP OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS BLOWING OFF HURRICANE HOWARD IN THE PACIFIC.
SURFACE COOLING SHOULD BE HAMPERED ENOUGH THAT LITTLE IF ANY FOG IS
EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE WARMER OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.

THOUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING... LAPSE RATES
BARELY IN EXCESS OF 6 DEGREES PER KILOMETER...MAINLY OVER DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. LITTLE CAP IN PLACE... SO MAINLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE
INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE TROPICAL PLUME PUSHING INTO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES... SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WEST TEXAS. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY... INSIGNIFICANT LIFT AND A
STRONGER CAP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS... LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO PLAINS SUN MORNING WILL DRAG
ASSOCD PAC FRONT/DRYLINE E INTO W TX. ALSO ASSOCD WARM CONVEYOR BELT
MSTR - WHICH WILL INCLUDE SOME OF HOWARD/S REMNANTS - WILL MOVE INTO
AREA. EXPECT THAT WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT ASSOCD WITH TROF WILL RESULT IN
A TSRA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND AS
FOCUS SHIFTS INTO FAR E DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH CENTRAL/WEST. SFC BOUNDARY MAY LAG ACRS FAR SRN
AREAS AND WILL KEEP AN ISOLD POP THERE. AS MID LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY MON AM COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO W TX WITH NE
WINDS ACRS CWFA BEFORE SUNRISE. AIRMASS WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AS
LR/S DECREASE AND MSTR IS PUSHED E AND S. NOTICEABLE COOLING MON AS
85H TEMPS DECREASE 3-4 DEGREES C. SFC RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWD
AS FRANCES DOMINATES LOW LEVEL PATTERN...THUS ELY COMPONENT WILL
PERSIST INTO TUE (AT LEAST ERN HALF OF CWFA). POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
VERY STABLE AND THUS DRY FCST CONTINUES TUE. MID LEVEL RIDGING TO
COMMENCE WED S OF ANOTHER COLD MID LEVEL TROF SWINGING THRU
ALBERTA/NRN U.S.. ASSOCD SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THRU THE PLAINS
THUR WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY FOCUSING IN ERN NM. LARGE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES FRI/SAT LEAD TO STATUS QUO IN FCST ATTP.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 4 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-050900-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
100 PM CDT (1200 PM MDT) SAT SEP 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS
OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST
PROBABLE OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU. NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED... THOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

05