Flash Flood Warning 112, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 172314
FFSMAF
TXC389-180230-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
608 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR REEVES
COUNTY...

AT 601 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT 
HAVE REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING IN THE CITY OF 
PECOS.  OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE CITY OF PECOS BETWEEN
530 PM AND 600 PM.  THESE HEAVY RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD 
STREET FLOODING IN THE CITY OF PECOS. 

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...ARE 
DRIFTING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH FROM NEAR TOYAH AND BALMORHEA AND 
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE CITY OF PECOS BETWEEN 630 PM AND 700 PM THIS 
EVENING.  FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS... STREETS AND 
UNDERPASSES...LOW WATER CROSSINGS... AND LOW LYING FARMLAND IS 
LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.  TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

KEEP CHILDREN AWAY FROM CULVERTS...DITCHES...STORM DRAINS...AND 
SWOLLEN CREEKS.

TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER... CALL THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3113 10407 3098 10343 3135 10307 3142 10343
      3197 10400

$$

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 180126
FFSMAF
TXC389-180132-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
830 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR REEVES COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

AT 820 PM CDT...MIDLAND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS REEVES COUNTY HAVE WEAKENED.  

TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT HAVE REPORTED THAT
THE EARLIER STREET FLOODING IN THE CITY OF PECOS HAVE RECEEDED.

THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR REEVES COUNTY IS CANCELLED.  

TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER... CALL THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3113 10407 3098 10343 3135 10307 3142 10343
      3197 10400

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
220 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

.SHORT TERM...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS AT THIS TIME PER SATELLITE...FIRING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS POPS AND QPF OVERNIGHT AS THIS MODEL
HAS BEEN HANDLING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THE BEST THE LAST
FEW DAYS AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO BE
THE CASE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE
AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING FAR WEST AS OROGRAPHICS COMBINE WITH
DYNAMICS AND HEATING. ISOLATED FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING A
POSSIBILITY WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. COOLED THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
LAST NIGHTS LOWS AND SIMILAR REGIME EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. COPIED ETA
MOS WINDS INTO THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
AS UNUSUAL AS IT IS MID LEVEL WLY FLOW CONTINUES ACRS W TX. SLOW
MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL EDGE INTO PB BY WED
AS TROF AXIS EXTENDS NE INTO KS. MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
PROGRESSING EWD WITH TROF WED. SLY SFC-85H WINDS INCREASE S OF
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE ACRS KS INTO E/SE NM. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL GATHER ACRS ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE NEAR BOUNDARY WHERE
BETTER INSOLATION/MID LEVEL LR/S ARE ANTICIPATED. STILL EXPECT SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ACRS PB IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MID/UPPER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AS FEATURE HAS BEEN ACTIVE LAST FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE A
SHRTWV TROF NEAR THE 4 CORNERS RGN WED WILL MOVE SE THURSDAY
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW THEREBY HELPING TO PUSH AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY INTO NW-N CWFA. HAVE EXPANDED PCT POPS INVOF BOUNDARY THUR
PM. BOUNDARY PROGGED TO REMAIN IN THE NRN CWFA INTO FRI AS ETA
DEVELOPS AMPLIFIED NW MID LEVEL FLOW AS SHRTWV TROF MOVES SE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. ETA DEVELOPS A STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTO
TRANS PECOS REGION FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS...THUS WARMER WITH
DECREASED POPS. BY SATURDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
ACRS CENTRAL NM THUS FAVORING MOUNTAIN DRIFTERS IN CONVERGENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW. GFS VERY OPTIMISTIC IN REGARD TO DEVELOPING STRONG SW
FLOW ACRS THE REGION AS DEEP SRN STREAM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OFF THE SRN
CA COAST BEFORE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY TUES. FOR NOW WILL
EXPECT RIDGING TO EVOLVE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...HOWEVER BASED ON
UNUSUAL PATTERN OF LATE AND WITH MODELS HINTING AT SW-NW MID LEVEL
FLOW COULD SEE MORE PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             65  88  69  90 /  20  30  40  20
CARLSBAD NM               62  89  65  94 /  50  40  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 65  88  70  91 /  20  40  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX          65  86  68  91 /  20  40  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX         58  85  64  88 /  50  40  20  20
HOBBS NM                  60  89  64  90 /  20  40  30  20
MARFA TX                  57  81  58  86 /  50  40  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   65  87  68  90 /  20  40  30  20
ODESSA TX                 64  87  68  90 /  20  40  30  20
WINK TX                   66  90  70  94 /  20  40  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
155 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-181000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
155 PM CDT (1255 PM MDT) TUE AUG 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MEANDERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. AREAL COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE EASTWARD TO WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT PLAINS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT GROUPS OVER WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE LAST WEATHER INFORMATION
AND PREPARE TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOODING THREATEN THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

12