Flash Flood Warning 110, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 160028
FFSMAF
NMC025-160115-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
622 PM MDT SUN AUG 15 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 715 PM MDT FOR LEA COUNTY...

AT 619 PM MDT...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN EXTENDED FROM 
EUNICE TO HALFWAY WITH MODERATE RAINFALL ALSO EXTENDING TO NORTH OF 
TATUM.  FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS ON NM 176.  
FLOODING FROM EARLIER STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF 
LOVINGTON.  THESE STORMS WILL HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING 
INCLUDE...EUNICE...HOBBS...LOVINGTON.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3219 10368 3232 10307 3329 10308 3327 10356
      3272 10369

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
146 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004

.SHORT TERM...
ONCE AGAIN THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST INITIALIZATION WHEN
COMPARED TO HAND ANALYSES OF MANDATORY LEVELS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND MASS FIELDS...AND PRECIP WATER.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE IT IS HARD TO PICK
OUT SUBTLE CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SHEAR ZONE....THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE TWO CIRCULATION CENTERS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...ONE OVER NORTHWESTERN CHIHUAHUA ABOUT 180 KM EAST OF
KELP...AND ANOTHER OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.  THE LATTER IS AIDING
CONVECTIVE REGENERATION OVER THE BIG BEND AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...
WHILE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICAN
PLAINS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN
BY DIABATIC HEATING IN A LOW CIN ENVIRONMENT.  THE CIRCULATION OVER
NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER MCS OVER
CHIHUAHUA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT FAR WEST TEXAS TONIGHT.

AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS
FAVOR MULTICELLS...AND A FEW COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND EXPECTED...PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWFA WHERE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
GREATEST.  AND AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...SLOW STORM PROPAGATION
ALONG WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES EXCEEDING THREE CM MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER PRESIDIO...JEFF
DAVIS...AND NORTHERN BREWSTER COUNTIES...WHERE HEAVY RAINS FELL LAST
NIGHT.  ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL INTO CONTRIBUTING BASINS SHOULD
CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT.  WHILE RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...THOSE WITH INTERESTS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST RIVER
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS.

WE HAVE RECONFIGURED SHORT TERM POP...QPF...SKY...AND WX GRIDS TO
PLACE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA.  QPF MAP VALUES NEAR 1.5 CM IS PROGGED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF PRESIDIO COUNTY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FORECAST NORTH AND
EAST.  EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET...BUT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE...WE HAVE TRENDED
DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...AND HAVE USED THE
BAKER TECHNIQUE FOR MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
BY 12Z MONDAY THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AS THE MID/UPPER AIR RIDGE
AXIS PERSISTS FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA.
CURRENT VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AS A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. WEAK
DYNAMICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES AND SUFFICIENTLY MOIST
PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND
DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREAS...ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ABOVE SCENARIO
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMP MAXIMA OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.

CURRENT PROGS INDICATE A SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE/SYNOPTIC PATTERN
BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY...BECOMING
ABSORBED BY THE LONGWAVE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF SHIFTING GRIDDED POPS NORTH
AND EAST FOR THURSDAY WITH A DRYING TREND COMMENCING FRIDAY. THIS AS
HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
WAVE. A DRIER SURFACE AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO USHER INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WESTERN U.S./GREAT BASIN REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             66  85  66  90 /  20  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               62  87  65  89 /  60  40  30  40
DRYDEN TX                 66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX          64  85  67  89 /  40  20  10  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX         58  80  63  84 /  60  40  30  40
HOBBS NM                  61  85  62  89 /  40  30  20  20
MARFA TX                  57  78  58  81 /  60  40  20  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   65  86  66  88 /  30  20  10  20
ODESSA TX                 65  87  67  89 /  30  20  10  20
WINK TX                   69  90  68  95 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

70/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
106 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
106 PM CDT (1206 PM MDT) SUN AUG 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN
SOUTH ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS REGIONS OF WEST TEXAS.  WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.  FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RATES EXCEEDED AN INCH PER HOUR...WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS SOUTH
ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE BIG BEND.  LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF ARROYOS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND DRAWS...LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf.