Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CDT FRI APR  9 2004

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THE ROTATION CENTER OVER OKLAHOMA. IT IS
TRIGGERING THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER THAT STATE AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. THE NEXT IMPULSE IS VISIBLE ALREADY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. INITIALLY...PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...THEN FOCUS WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH WITH NEXT
IMPULSE RIDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE...DOUBLE
BARRELED LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE STATE...THIS WILL SHIFT THE AREA
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DISCUSSION AGREES WITH THIS THINKING...BUT LEAVING OPEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN MORE TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DROPPING TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNDER THE
COOLER FLOW FROM THE NORTH. NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY MID
WEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM...
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL BE PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND COLD SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN THE AREA. THIS SHOULD MAKE
MONDAY NIGHT THE COLDEST NIGHT. WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE
NORTH AND ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE MID 30S. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN LATER IN THE WEEK AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A WARMING TREND. A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE MOISTURE BUT IT LOOKS INSUFFICIENT
AT THIS TIME TO MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS MAY TEMPER THE
WARMING A LITTLE WEDNESDAY BUT THINGS SHOULD WARM CONSIDERABLY LATER
IN THE WEEK. PATTERN FOR NEXT FRIDAY LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MAXES IN
THE 80S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE SURFACE HIGH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. UPPER TROF
APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE INCREASE AND THIS WILL LIKELY
HOLD TEMPS IN 60S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    74  55  62  45 /  30  60  60  40
HARRISON AR       65  46  53  38 /  40  80  80  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  55  64  45 /  40  60  60  40
PINE BLUFF AR     77  57  65  46 /  30  50  60  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  46  55  38 /  40  80  80  40
MONTICELLO AR     79  58  66  47 /  30  50  60  50
SEARCY AR         70  54  61  43 /  30  70  70  40
MOUNT IDA AR      77  54  62  45 /  40  60  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  51  58  42 /  40  70  70  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
525 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
525 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THIS EVENING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PREVALENT OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED STRONG AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AS THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES
OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA. AGAIN...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUING. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS
WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

COOLER AIR IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD ARKANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE COULD EXPERIENCE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S BOTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS. PERSONS WITH TENDER OUTDOOR VEGETATION SHOULD MONITOR
LATER FORECASTS OVER THE WEEKEND FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

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