Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CDT WED APR 7 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LOW MOVING ALONG THE RED RIVER SHOULD MOVE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND BE PAST THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH
LEADING SPIRALS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF CWA AT ISSUE TIME.
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTH SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH DECREASING TO
40 PERCENT TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS LATE TONIGHT
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE MOVES PAST. SOME MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY CHANCE OF RAIN
INTO THURSDAY RIGHT NOW. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH IT AND STILL LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO
MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY BUT WILL KEEP 10 PERCENT POPS GOING
IN GRIDS. NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AREA ON FRIDAY AND MAIN INFLUENCE
REACHES INTO THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN PUT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH. BEST MOISTURE
IS IN THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS
IN THE NORTH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND 40 PERCENT POPS ELSEWHERE. WARM FRONT
MOY MOVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF
THOSE THAT DO NOT REACH CENTRAL ARKANSAS BUT MOVES FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE AND COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW. THIS WILL
BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT ABOUT RAIN CHANCES BEHIND THE LOW ON
SATURDAY BUT WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
ONLY GO WITH LIGHT RAIN. DRIER AIR INDICATED LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES SO WILL LEAVE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND WENT CLOSE TO MEX AND EXTENDED GUIDANCE ON TEMPS
FOR NOW. THIS COULD BE THE 2004 VERSION OF BLACKBERRY WINTER FOR
THIS AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN
RESPONSE TO LONG WAVE TROF THAT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF ARKANSAS.
RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEFT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE LAST 3 DAYS OF THE EXTENDED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    54  76  49  69 /  40  10  10  30
HARRISON AR       50  72  43  66 /  40  10  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  78  49  69 /  40  10  10  30
PINE BLUFF AR     55  77  50  73 /  60  10  10  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  72  42  66 /  40  10  10  30
MONTICELLO AR     55  77  50  75 /  60  10  10  30
SEARCY AR         53  75  47  67 /  40  10  10  30
MOUNT IDA AR      54  78  49  69 /  40  10  10  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  76  46  67 /  40  10  10  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
330 PM CDT WED APR 7 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-081000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
330 PM CDT WED APR 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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