Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION SHAPING UP TO THE WESY OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. NEW 21Z RAOB AT KLZK CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD MID LEVEL
CAP SO IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AHEAD OF THE MAIN EVENT. IMAGINE THE CAP WILL ERODE AS THE UPPER TROF
MOVES CLOSER AND THE FORCING WILL ALSO HELP OVERCOME IT SO STILL EXPECT
AT LEAST A SQUALL LINE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. WILL
KEEP POPS AT 90 PERCENT EARLY TONIGHT WITH MENTION OF SEVERE. SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY COULD LINGER PAST 06Z IN EASTERN ZONES
BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SEVERE OUT FOR LATER TONIGHT AT THIS TIME.
WILL CONTINUE LOWER POPS LATER TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY SHOWERS. UPPER
TROFFING CONTINUES TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
COUPLE OF MORE WEAKER SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. DESPITE DRY SLOT...
WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SOME CLOUDS. WILL KEEP
HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MAIN MOISTURE
AXIS MAY NOT CLEAR THAT AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MOISTURE SHOULD BE LESS AS TONIGHTS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SWEEP A LOT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AWAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE ON
SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
BRING IN WEST WINDS AND GOOD WARMING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES
BY FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE LOOKS
MORE SCARCE WITH THIS SO WILL NOT MENTION PRECIPITATION WITH THIS.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUGH CALL BUT DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE A
LOT OF COOLING. WENT CLOSE TO MAV MINS. PATTERN FRIDAY WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR GOOD WARMING ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS. CLOUDS MAY
HOLD MAXES DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTH. PUT HIGHEST MAXES IN CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMP FORECASTS BEYOND FRIDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE
AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    56  72  45  62 /  90  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       51  63  38  56 /  90  20  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  73  45  62 /  90  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     57  70  46  63 /  90  30  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  62  38  56 /  90  30  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     59  69  47  64 /  90  30  10  10
SEARCY AR         55  70  44  62 /  90  30  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      55  72  45  62 /  90  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   54  70  44  60 /  90  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR
ZONES ARZ003>007...ARZ012>016...ARZ021>025...ARZ030>034...
ARZ037>047...ARZ052>057...ARZ062>067.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
614 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
614 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED IN MISSOURI AND A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN
EASTERN OKLAHOMA ON THE LATEST WEATHER MAP. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND WILL ENTER WESTERN
ARKANSAS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MUCH OF ARKANSAS IS IN A MODERATE RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IN WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL APPROACH
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS QUICKLY.

IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
SEASON. PEOPLE ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE ARE ADVISED TO PREPARE FOR
SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST...AND LOOK FOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES.

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