Severe Thunderstorm Warning 339, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1015 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT ISSUE
TIME BASED ON SATELLITE. MAIN COLD FRONT IS LAGGING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS INTO EXTREME EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND IT SHOULD PROGRESS EAST INTO ARKANSAS AND ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED MOSTLY FROM WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS
HAS ALSO BEEN AIDED BY SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW. INSTABILITY IS QUITE MARGINAL SO THIS WILL CUT DOWN ON
SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FIGURE ON ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS SO LEFT POPS AT 80 PERCENT. DID UPDATE MAINLY
TO CLEAR UP EVENING WORDING. UPPED WIND FORECASTS A LITTLE IN THE
EAST WHERE STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE
PRECIPITATION...BUT THAT SHOULD DECREASE SOME ONCE RAIN BEGINS.
TEMP FORECASTS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

29

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