Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
320 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF ACTIVE WEATHER THIS MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS WARNINGS
ISSUED. STORM SURVEYS BEING CONDUCTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR DAMAGE SEEN
IN SALINE COUNTY.

WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WITH A DRY LINE IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. DRY LINE WILL MOVE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN ZONES. DID INCREASE QPF AMOUNTS
THOUGH.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. KEPT SOME POPS IN THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST...DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

DECREASED POPS WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND
MOISTURE IS LIMITED.. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT PULLING POPS ALL
TOGETHER...BUT SHOWED A DOWNWARD TREND. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR
THURSDAY...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE DECREASED AS WELL.

NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE STATE FRIDAY...WITH COLD FRONT ENTERING
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HEADING TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO
SEVERE WEATHER. STILL ENOUGH LIFT FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY...BUT WILL
MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE MOVES NORTH.

TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. READINGS WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN WITH
COLD FRONT SATURDAY...BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN WITH WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    65  84  64  84 /  30  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       59  82  57  82 /  30  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    65  85  64  85 /  30  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     67  84  65  85 /  40  30  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  81  57  81 /  30  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     68  84  66  85 /  50  30  20  20
SEARCY AR         64  83  62  83 /  40  20  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      65  85  63  85 /  30  20  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  83  61  84 /  30  20  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

58

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
424 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             DRASCO                  35.63N 91.95W
10/18/2004  1.00 INCH        CLEBURNE           AR   POST OFFICE

&&

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
502 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             BETHESDA                35.78N 91.78W
10/18/2004  0.75 INCH        INDEPENDENCE       AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
508 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             SOUTH SIDE              35.70N 91.62W
10/18/2004  0.88 INCH        INDEPENDENCE       AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
511 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             DESHA                   35.73N 91.68W
10/18/2004  0.75 INCH        INDEPENDENCE       AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

22