Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IN THE WORKS TONIGHT/FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
FRONT...AND WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT.

HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS OVERNIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH COMMON. HOWEVER...WOULD SURMISE THAT
QUITE A FEW AREAS IN WESTERN HALF OF STATE WILL MEASURE 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY MORE. HAVE MENTIONED POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

FRONT TO NORTHWEST WILL EDGE INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY...AND WILL
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OF THE PAST THAT RUSHED FRONTS THROUGH IS GONE...WITH CLOSER TO
ZONAL FLOW THIS TIME. THIS NOT ONLY MEANS THAT COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE...THERE WILL ALSO BE HEALTHY CHANCES FOR RAIN
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK AS FRONT SLOWS DOWN/COMES TO A GRINDING HALT.

GIVEN THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL...HAVE KEPT AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES
FOR RAIN IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE ALSO KEPT IN
MORE CLOUDS/UPPED DEWPOINTS A BIT BEHIND FRONT.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HEAD BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...WITH
A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER. (46)
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    69  82  68  85 /  80  90  50  30
HARRISON AR       67  77  63  82 /  90  50  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  82  68  85 /  80  70  50  40
PINE BLUFF AR     70  83  69  85 /  80  80  50  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  77  63  81 /  80  60  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     70  84  71  86 /  70  80  50  50
SEARCY AR         70  82  67  84 /  80  90  40  30
MOUNT IDA AR      68  81  68  85 /  90  60  50  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  81  67  84 /  90  60  40  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

46

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
430 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
430 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT CAUSING LOW PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE TO SPIN
UP. THE LOW WILL TRAVEL THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH A
GENERAL RAINFALL LIKELY STATEWIDE. RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. AN AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT A MAJOR CONCERN DUE TO THE DRY WEATHER EXPERIENCED
AS OF LATE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED
ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY BUT WITH NO REAL
PUSH OF COOL AIR BEHIND IT...IT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE STATE AND
LIKELY WILL NOT DO SO UNTIL SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE MOST OF FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE SURFACE PULLS OUT TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE ON FRIDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BECOME STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ANYTIME THROUGH THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THERE IS CHANCE
OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME IF THIS STORM WILL DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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