Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

.SHORT TERM...
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH...AS THE TEMPERATURE AT OFFICE WAS 98 DEGREES
EARLIER. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S ACROSS THE STATE...ADDING TO THE
INSTABILITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DURING
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST. THIS WILL MOVE THE FRONT
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF
RAIN...AS WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK AND STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY. MAIN
CONCERN WITH SEVERE WEATHER IS THE FLOOD POTENTIAL...BUT DUE TO
AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...COULD SEE SOME STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE
AND LARGE HAIL.

RAINFALL AXIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY...AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
EAST. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL STILL POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY IN NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH...AS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN. MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ON SUNDAY...WITH GUIDANCE GIVING HARRISON ONLY 67 FOR A HIGH.
DID NOT LOWER TEMPS QUITE THAT MUCH...BUT WENT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MID SHIFT MIGHT HAVE TO LOWER THEM EVEN MORE.

PRECIP WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTH...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE STATE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS...WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. WEAK TROFINESS CONTINUES AFTER THAT THEN RIDGING INCREASES
BY SATURDAY. WEAK RETURN FLOW SETS UP WEDNESDAY THEN SURFACE
RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH BY THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS INDICATED BUT A WEAK BOUNDARY OR TWO MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ESPECIALLY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH MODEST MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SMALL POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID
INCREASE POPS TO 30 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WAS ON THE FENCE ABOUT POPS
FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW. TEMPS
LIKELY WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER AT MID WEEK AND MAXES THURSDAY
MAY BE HELD IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. TEMPS SHOULD RISE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING INCREASING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    72  84  66  84 /  60  60  20  10
HARRISON AR       64  77  60  80 /  70  60  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  84  66  84 /  60  60  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     73  85  67  85 /  60  60  30  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  64  78  60  80 /  70  60  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  86  68  86 /  60  60  30  10
SEARCY AR         70  84  64  83 /  70  60  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      72  84  66  84 /  60  60  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  82  64  83 /  70  60  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

58/29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1215 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1215 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THEN WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING
AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ISOLATED
MARBLE TO PENNY SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT THE CHANCE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING...AND MAY PRODUCE AS
MUCH AS ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR OR LESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH...AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BY MID
WEEK...BEGINNING IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS. AT THIS TIME...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
331 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     TSTM WND GST     LITTLE ROCK NATIONAL AI 34.73N 92.22W
07/24/2004  51 MPH           PULASKI            AR   OTHER FEDERAL

&&

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