Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BROKE OUT THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS INITIATED CONVECTION. COLD FRONT IS
IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH IS IT MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE AS
THE DRIER AIR IS STILL IN NORTHERN MISSOURI.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE STATE. GFS LOOKS TO MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH TOO FAST...WHILE THE
ETA LOOKS TOO SLOW. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE
GFS EXCEPT IN QPF AMOUNTS. DO EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER...PINPOINTING THE EXACT REGION OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEPEND
ON SMALL FEATURES. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SEEING HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. DUE TO THE WEAK WIND
FIELDS...STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING.

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THESE WILL BRING MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
THE STATE. AT THIS POINT...HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES
...RAINFALL POTENTIAL COULD REMAIN INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. DID NOT
FEEL COMFORTABLE EXTENDING LIKELY POPS THAT FAR OUT DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES.

RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END SUNDAY IN THE NORTH...AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTH. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE STATE.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AREA STAYS DRY TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS TO
THE AREA. SHORT WAVE IN DANGEROUS NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES MOSTLY
THROUGH KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AT FIRST AND APPEARS EFFECTS OF IT WILL
STAY TO THE WEST UNTIL THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WEAK
CLOSED LOW SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
AREA OF MOISTURE. PUT IN SMALL POPS FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA...CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...THEN
WENT WITH 30 POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH 20 POPS
ELSEWHERE. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMP GRIDS. PATTERN FAVORS MAXES A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH MINS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    72  88  69  85 /  40  50  30  40
HARRISON AR       66  78  61  80 /  50  60  60  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  88  69  86 /  40  50  30  40
PINE BLUFF AR     73  89  70  86 /  40  40  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  78  61  79 /  50  60  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     73  91  71  87 /  30  40  30  40
SEARCY AR         71  86  67  84 /  40  50  40  40
MOUNT IDA AR      72  87  69  86 /  40  50  30  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  84  67  84 /  40  50  40  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

58/29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
340 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
340 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH NORTHERN PARTS OF ARKANSAS
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN MOST
SECTIONS OF THE STATE. ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
ISOLATED STORMS BRIEFLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER SMALL
AREAS. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY AN HOUR OR
SO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE
FRONT...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE STATE
THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANY SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY WOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED TO ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS BRIEFLY BECOMING SEVERE. ONCE AGAIN...THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY AN
HOUR OR SO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

28