Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 258, NWS Little Rock, AR

July 15, 2004Garland County, Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 15, 2004, 7:43 PM CDT for Garland County, Arkansas. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 15, 2004, 7:43 PM CDT (00:43 UTC)
Expired
Jul 15, 2004, 8:30 PM CDT
In force
47 min
Issued by
NWS Little Rock, AR
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Garland County, AR

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jul 15, 4:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 265 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2004-07-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2006 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2004-07-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 45 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2006 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-37 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1328 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
45 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
50 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.4
Supercell composite
3.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 15, 3:27 PM CDT, 4 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 3:27 PM CDT, 4 hours 16 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
327 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LATEST MESOSCALE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...FROM NEAR MONTICELLO...TO CLARKSVILLE. LOCAL RADARS
INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED RETURNS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. MOST
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN...CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE EXPLOSIVE...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE
LIKELY.

OVERNIGHT...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST MOTION
VECTORS FOR ANY COMPLEX THAT FORMS INDICATE THAT NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AFFECTED BY ANY ORGANIZED
STORM COMPLEX THAT FORMS.

RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE ON FRIDAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN MOVES IN ON FRIDAY. WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF SYSTEM...HAVE PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    74  93  74  90 /  30  40  40  30
HARRISON AR       70  88  67  87 /  40  50  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  93  74  90 /  30  40  40  30
PINE BLUFF AR     75  93  74  90 /  30  40  40  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  87  67  87 /  40  50  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     75  95  74  90 /  30  40  40  30
SEARCY AR         73  93  73  88 /  30  50  40  30
MOUNT IDA AR      74  94  73  90 /  30  40  40  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  93  72  89 /  30  50  40  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

55/22
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 15, 1:20 PM CDT, 6 hours 23 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
120 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-161000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
120 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
STATIONARY. THE FRONT ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CREATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ARKANSAS AGAIN TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE TONIGHT
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HEAT INDICES WILL
REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

REMNANTS OF THE STORMS THAT OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY COUPLED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL ACT AS FOCUSING
MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED OVER ARKANSAS. THIS
MAY BRING COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE STATE FROM THE PLAINS.
ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

22

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 15, 4:09 PM CDT, 3 hours 34 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
409 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             FOUNTAIN LAKE           34.57N 93.00W
07/15/2004  0.88 INCH        GARLAND            AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

22
Local storm report, Jul 15, 6:10 PM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
610 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             CHIMES                  35.70N 92.74W
07/15/2004  2.00 INCH        VAN BUREN          AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

0555 PM     HAIL             LESLIE                  35.83N 92.56W
07/15/2004  0.88 INCH        SEARCY             AR   PUBLIC

&&

22
Local storm report, Jul 15, 6:12 PM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
612 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             GREERS FERRY            35.57N 92.17W
07/15/2004  1.00 INCH        CLEBURNE           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

22
Local storm report, Jul 15, 6:23 PM CDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
623 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             GREERS FERRY            35.57N 92.17W
07/15/2004  1.75 INCH        CLEBURNE           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

22
Local storm report, Jul 15, 6:58 PM CDT, 45 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
658 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             2 W FLIPPIN             36.28N 92.63W
07/15/2004  0.88 INCH        MARION             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

22

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.