Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
327 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LATEST MESOSCALE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...FROM NEAR MONTICELLO...TO CLARKSVILLE. LOCAL RADARS
INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED RETURNS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. MOST
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN...CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE EXPLOSIVE...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE
LIKELY.

OVERNIGHT...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST MOTION
VECTORS FOR ANY COMPLEX THAT FORMS INDICATE THAT NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AFFECTED BY ANY ORGANIZED
STORM COMPLEX THAT FORMS.

RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE ON FRIDAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN MOVES IN ON FRIDAY. WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF SYSTEM...HAVE PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    74  93  74  90 /  30  40  40  30
HARRISON AR       70  88  67  87 /  40  50  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  93  74  90 /  30  40  40  30
PINE BLUFF AR     75  93  74  90 /  30  40  40  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  87  67  87 /  40  50  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     75  95  74  90 /  30  40  40  30
SEARCY AR         73  93  73  88 /  30  50  40  30
MOUNT IDA AR      74  94  73  90 /  30  40  40  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  93  72  89 /  30  50  40  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

55/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
120 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-161000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
120 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
STATIONARY. THE FRONT ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CREATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ARKANSAS AGAIN TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE TONIGHT
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HEAT INDICES WILL
REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

REMNANTS OF THE STORMS THAT OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY COUPLED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL ACT AS FOCUSING
MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED OVER ARKANSAS. THIS
MAY BRING COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE STATE FROM THE PLAINS.
ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
409 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             FOUNTAIN LAKE           34.57N 93.00W
07/15/2004  0.88 INCH        GARLAND            AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

22