Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
810 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FORECAST TO PUT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. UPPED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS WELL.

MCS CONTINUES TO HEAD TOWARD CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS EVENING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. NOTICE THAT OUTFLOW STARTING TO OUTRUN LINE OF
STORMS...SO WOULD EXPECT SOME WEAKENING TO OCCUR. THIS ALONG WITH
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD PRETTY MUCH FALL APART AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO THIN OUT...WITH PATCHY FOG FORMING.

THANKS TO SPC FOR COORDINATION. (46)
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

46

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
325 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
325 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SYSTEM ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI FROM KANSAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WAS DEVELOPING...WITH THE LINE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH HAIL IN SOME AREAS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF MENA...CONWAY AND HARDY.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE POPPING UP THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT AND A
MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THE STORMS WILL TEND TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

OVERNIGHT...ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM TEXAS INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS WILL BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.
ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

WHILE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED...THEY MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES FROM THE PLAINS...WHICH HAVE AFFECTED MUCH OF
ARKANSAS RECENTLY...WILL TEND TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS A LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES FROM MISSOURI.

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
527 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             MCRAE                   35.11N 91.82W
07/08/2004  0.75 INCH        WHITE              AR   PUBLIC

&&

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
711 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARKSVILLE             35.46N 93.47W
07/08/2004                   JOHNSON            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN CLARKSVILLE

&&

220