Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1025 AM CDT WED JUL  7 2004

.DISCUSSION...
FRONT THAT WAS LYING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING HAS MADE
SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM KJBR TO KBVX TO JUST
SOUTH OF KFYV. NOT EXPECTING THIS FEATURE TO MAKE MUCH MORE OF A
SOUTHERN PUSH BEFORE STARTING TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. FRONT WILL STILL ACT AS A FOCUS POINT FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

MCS STILL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AND COMPLEX DECREASING IN SIZE AND
INTENSITY BUT WILL STILL NEED TO UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
MCS. WILL NEED TO BOOST POPS ACROSS THE BOARD AS SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL BE LEFT ALONE BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAY NEED TO LOWER THEM LATER IF AIRMASS CAN
NOT RECOVER FROM PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS DO NOT BREAK UP.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-081000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TODAY THEN BECOME
STATIONARY. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AND EFFECTS OF THIS MAY REACH INTO ARKANSAS
TODAY.

AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED IN ARKANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES BUT THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE PLAINS.

HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT AND THE HIGHLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR IN ARKANSAS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AND SOME FLOODING COULD OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE STATE AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS ARKANSAS
FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LESSEN THE CHANCE FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IN THE STATE...BUT SOME WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR BOUNDARIES
MAY REMAIN AND THIS ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WILL LEAD TO SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS.
SHOULD THIS OCCUR...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARDOUS WEATHER. ONE SUCH COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY...BUT COULD BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW
AREAS ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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