Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
650 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE MCS IS HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA. DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IT WILL MAKE IT IN...INCREASED POPS TO 40
PERCENT IN THE NORTH FOR MID TO LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE DECREASES
AFTER THAT SO PUT IN 30 POPS IN NORTHERN THIRD AT NOON WITH 20
PERCENT ELSEWHERE THEN GRADUALLY WENT TO BROAD BRUSH 20 PERCENT
FROM MID AFTERNOON ON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER A LITTLE AS WELL.
DID NOT CHANGE TEMP FORECASTS ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
TEMPS WILL BE IMPACTED AT LEAST IN THE NORTHWEST.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUMMER TO RETURN TO THE AREA TODAY FOR THE MOST PART. MAIN FLY IN
THE OINTMENT WILL BE WHAT EFFECTS THE ONGOING MCS IN KANSAS MAY HAVE
ON THE AREA LATER TODAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AND NONE SEEM
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT. WENT WITH COMPROMISE OF POSSIBILITIES.
STARTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH AT MID MORNING AND SLOWLY
EXPANDED THEM ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. WAS NOT GOING TO FORECAST
A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN HALF...BUT DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF
OUTFLOW FROM MCS MOVING INTO THOSE AREAS...DECIDED TO PUT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING IN THE AREA
MAY SERVE TO CAP THE SOUTH BUT WITH IT BEING A HOLIDAY DECIDED TO
KEEP A MENTION IN JUST IN CASE. LEFT SMALL POPS IN THE NORTHERN THIRD
OR SO THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE EVENT ANOTHER MCS GETS GOING IN THE PLAINS
AND MANAGES TO MAKE IT IN THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THIS
SO ONLY WENT 20 PERCENT. THIS POSSIBILITY ALSO LED TO HAVING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS FOR MONDAY. MORE POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT
IN PLAINS TRANSLATING INTO THE AREA LED TO CONTINUED SMALL POPS
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE UPPER FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUCKLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW IT TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA SO KEPT 30 PERCENT POPS GOING FOR THAT TIME
FRAME. MAX TEMPS TODAY WOULD BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED IF THE KANSAS
MCS WERE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA STILL GOING STRONG...BUT THAT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME. THUS FIGURE ON MOST AREAS SEEING GOOD
HEATING AND WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW...MAXES INTO THE LOWER 90S
IN MOST AREAS LOOKS GOOD WITH THE OZARKS ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER.
FOLLOWED THE SAME PATTERN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINS SHOULD STAY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH VERY HUMID AIR IN PLACE FROM THE RECENT
RAINY WEATHER. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX TODAY WILL BE 100 TO 105 IN MOST
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT IN ZONES.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ZONAL FLOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK
TO THE NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID SOUTH. HOWEVER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND...AND TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL READINGS...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    93  75  93  74 /  20  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       89  71  90  70 /  20  20  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    94  75  93  74 /  20  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     94  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  89  71  90  70 /  20  20  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     94  75  94  75 /  20  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         92  74  92  73 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      94  75  93  74 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  73  93  73 /  20  20  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

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