Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
255 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
REMNANTS OF MCS CONTS WORKING ACRS CNTRL AR ATTM. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS CONTS TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE FA AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE BULK OF
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER ERN AR BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL MAKE
FINAL DECISION ON EVENING POPS JUST BEFORE ZONE ISSUANCE.

UPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ERN KS THIS AFTN IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS
FCST FORM TO OUR NW LATER THIS EVENING AS MORE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND
THE UPPER LOW. ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO WORK SEWD LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MRNG...AFFECTING MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL AR. HAVE STUCK WITH THE
MESOETA SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.

AS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...APPEARS THAT NRN AND CNTRL
SECTIONS WILL SEE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THE NEXT COMPLEX LATER
TNGT. THUS...PLAN TO EXTEND FF WATCH THRU TNGT FOR NRN AND CNTRL
SECTIONS AND ALLOW WATCH FOR SRN AR TO EXPIRE AT 00Z.

UPPER SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FA LATER SAT AND SUN TO
ALLOW FOR DECREASING POPS. MESOETA STILL SHOWING POSSIBLE REMNANTS
OF ANOTHER MCS DROPPING SEWD INTO AR BY SUN MNRG. HAVE STUCK WITH
GOING FCST AND KEPT SLGT CHC POPS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

MOS MIN TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD LOOK GOOD AND PRETTY MUCH FOLLOW
PERSISTENCE. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS MAX TEMPS FOR SAT WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHCS. SWLY SFC FLOW ON SUN WL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND. MOS OUTPUT INDCG HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR
SUN. THESE READINGS SEEM A LITTLE TOO WARM WITH SOIL MOISTURE QUITE
HIGH AND HAVE GONE ABOUT A CAT LOWER SUN AND MON.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. AND BY THURSDAY
MORNING THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
BORDER. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BY FRIDAY THE FRONT
WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BORDER. THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 700 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES ARZ052>057...
ARZ062>069.

FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 800 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES ARZ003>007...
ARZ012>016...ARZ021>025...ARZ030>034...ARZ037>047.
&&

44/38

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
815 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
815 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS TODAY. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS CONVECTION
WILL AID IN NEW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS...AND THE COPIOUS MOISTURE IN
THE AIR...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
ARKANSAS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
TODAY...AND WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ARKANSAS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER ALL SECTIONS OF
ARKANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS ENERGY INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE
OVER THE STATE. HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FEATURE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS FRIDAY WILL HELP TO TRIGGER NEW
STORMS SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE STATE IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS SATURDAY...AS A COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE OVER THE
STATE. HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE STATE...AND WITH WARM UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

38

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1006 AM CDT FRI JUL 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MONTONGO                33.73N 91.82W
07/01/2004                   DREW               AR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            NUMEROUS ROADS UNDER WATER AND CLOSED IN AND NEAR
            MONTONGO.

&&

56

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