Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
155 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE SHORT TERM.
CURRENTLY...SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WERE LEFT OVER FROM
CONVECTION LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACTING TO PRODUCE
WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. APPROACHING COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL ALSO AIDE IN DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS TONIGHT...AND TOWARD
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
BEEN KEYING IN ON MCS DEVELOPING INVOF THE PANHANDLES AREA TONIGHT...
AND MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE DYING OUT
SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS AS THOUGH REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
IT INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INTERACTING WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...THIS
WILL ACT TO TOUCH OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION.

 FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE AROUND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FOR
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ENHANCED BY INTERACTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ALSO...WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTERACTING WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL MCS COULD
OCCUR AND SCRAPE SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY MORNING.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE...AND WITH MCS
POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

LOOKS AS THOUGH SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH ON MONDAY...BUT WITH MORE UPPER SYSTEMS APPROACHING...RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE.

ONE FINAL CONCERN...AND THIS DEALS WITH POTENTIAL HEAT INDEX
PROBLEMS. ALTHOUGH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOWHERE NEAR BEING
MET...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S...AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90...COULD PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE  100 DEGREES. THE AREA MOST LIKELY AFFECTED
WOULD BE SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SUCCEEDING SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
AND PERHAPS HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORECAST IF THE SITUATION
WARRANTS.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
UNUSUALLY ACTIVE EARLY SUMMER PATTERN TO CONTINUE MOST OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS WEAK AND 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE AREA
REMAIN IN THE MID 580S OR SO. APPEARS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND GFS HINTS
AT A COUPLE OF MCS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ENHANCED POPS TO 40
PERCENT IN THE NORTH TO REFLECT THIS ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION
WILL BE HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE BY THEN. GENERALLY WENT WITH 30
PERCENT POPS ELSEWHERE. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AREA MAY BE IN LULL BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE SO LEFT 20 POPS GOING. THEN ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO THE AREA FRIDAY SO PUT IN 30 PERCENT POPS FOR
THAT. I WAS SO CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN GOING ON IN
EACH PERIOD TO USE COVERAGE WORDING IN THE EXTENDED. KEPT MIN TEMP
FORECASTS AS THEY WERE BUT SHADED MAXES DOWN A CATEGORY OR SO IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TO FIT MEX AND EXTENDED GUIDANCE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    74  87  67  86 /  50  40  30  30
HARRISON AR       64  78  60  80 /  50  30  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  88  68  87 /  50  40  30  40
PINE BLUFF AR     74  88  68  87 /  50  40  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  79  61  81 /  50  30  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     74  89  69  87 /  40  40  30  40
SEARCY AR         72  86  66  85 /  50  30  30  30
MOUNT IDA AR      72  87  68  87 /  50  40  30  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  85  65  85 /  50  30  30  30
&&

SHORT TERM 57/LONG TERM 29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
912 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-191000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
912 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS LIE ACROSS ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. THEY WILL LAY THE GROUND WORK FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. ONE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR MENA TO RUSSELLVILLE TO
BATESVILLE. THE OTHER WAS IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. THESE
MAY BECOME THE FOCUS POINT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE RUNNING
INTO EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AND WHEN HEATING IS THROWN
INTO THE MIX...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

THE AREA MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ARKADELPHIA TO PINE BLUFF TO STUTTGART. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE ISOLATED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS AREA TOO. WHAT STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WEAKEN AND THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO COOL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT MAY ENTER ARKANSAS SATURDAY AND HANG AROUND THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY DURING
THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE COULD BE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING COULD RESULT ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME AREAS OR A THUNDERSTORM SITS IN ONE LOCATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

29