Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION SHAPING UP TO THE WESY OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. NEW 21Z RAOB AT KLZK CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD MID LEVEL
CAP SO IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AHEAD OF THE MAIN EVENT. IMAGINE THE CAP WILL ERODE AS THE UPPER TROF
MOVES CLOSER AND THE FORCING WILL ALSO HELP OVERCOME IT SO STILL EXPECT
AT LEAST A SQUALL LINE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. WILL
KEEP POPS AT 90 PERCENT EARLY TONIGHT WITH MENTION OF SEVERE. SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY COULD LINGER PAST 06Z IN EASTERN ZONES
BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SEVERE OUT FOR LATER TONIGHT AT THIS TIME.
WILL CONTINUE LOWER POPS LATER TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY SHOWERS. UPPER
TROFFING CONTINUES TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
COUPLE OF MORE WEAKER SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. DESPITE DRY SLOT...
WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SOME CLOUDS. WILL KEEP
HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MAIN MOISTURE
AXIS MAY NOT CLEAR THAT AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MOISTURE SHOULD BE LESS AS TONIGHTS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SWEEP A LOT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AWAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE ON
SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
BRING IN WEST WINDS AND GOOD WARMING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES
BY FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE LOOKS
MORE SCARCE WITH THIS SO WILL NOT MENTION PRECIPITATION WITH THIS.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUGH CALL BUT DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE A
LOT OF COOLING. WENT CLOSE TO MAV MINS. PATTERN FRIDAY WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR GOOD WARMING ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS. CLOUDS MAY
HOLD MAXES DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTH. PUT HIGHEST MAXES IN CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMP FORECASTS BEYOND FRIDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE
AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    56  72  45  62 /  90  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       51  63  38  56 /  90  20  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  73  45  62 /  90  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     57  70  46  63 /  90  30  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  62  38  56 /  90  30  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     59  69  47  64 /  90  30  10  10
SEARCY AR         55  70  44  62 /  90  30  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      55  72  45  62 /  90  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   54  70  44  60 /  90  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR
ZONES ARZ003>007...ARZ012>016...ARZ021>025...ARZ030>034...
ARZ037>047...ARZ052>057...ARZ062>067.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
233 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
233 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON THE LATEST WEATHER
MAP. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAS WARMED AND BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE. MUCH OF ARKANSAS IS IN A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IN WEST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS
QUICKLY.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ARKANSAS TONIGHT. IT
APPEARS THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE
AS WELL.

THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
SEASON. PEOPLE ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE ARE ADVISED TO PREPARE FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CHECK THE LATEST
FORECAST...AND LOOK FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES.

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