Flash Flood Warning 91, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CST MON NOV 1 2004

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SOME SCTD SHOWERS NOTED OVER PARTS OF THE FA THIS MRNG...WITH BULK
OF CONVECTION NOTED OVR ERN OK AND NWRN AR. INCRSG SLY FLOW HAS
ALLOWED HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT FURTHER NWD THIS MRNG.

CONDS STILL SHAPING UP FOR A SIG HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACRS THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND TNGT. MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS MRNG HAVE TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER WITH OVERALL EWD PROGRESSION OF STORM SYS CURRENTLY TO OUR W.
WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ETA FOR THIS FCST.

EXPECT AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN TO WORK SLOLY EWD TODAY...AFFECTING MOST
OF THE FA BY LATER THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY WILL CONT DURG THE OVERNIGHT
HRS WITH CONTD THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS. HPC HAS A GOOD BIT OF THE
AREA OUTLINED FOR HVY RAIN POTENTIAL THRU 12Z TUE. BASED ON ALL OF
THIS...WILL EXTEND FF WATCH THRU TNGT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. LOOKING AT
QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS.

CDFNT IS PROGGED TO ENTER WRN AR THIS EVENING. SEVERAL WAVES ALONG
THE BNDRY ARE FCST TO TRACK NEWD INTO TUE...HELPING TO ENHANCE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE FNT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SE OF STATE LATE
TUE. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER SYS TO FCST TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF TX TUE
NIGHT AND WED. THIS WILL AID IN THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER SFC LOW
ALONG THE FNT ACRS ERN AR. APPEARS THE CHCS OF STRONG STORMS WILL
RMN JUST TO OUR E WHERE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE. THE EVENTUAL
TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

UPPER LOW IS FCST TO TRACK TO THE W OF AR WED. WL NEED TO KEEP RAIN
CHCS IN FOR MUCH OF WED. COULD SEE SOME DRIER AIR WORK INTO SWRN AR
LATE IN THE DAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE SYS BY WED
EVENING.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TAKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE NORTH PART OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY SINCE IT
WILL SEVERELY LACK MOISTURE. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT OF THE PASSING FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY
DRY AIR RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES
ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY AT THIS
TIME AS MOISTURE IS AGAIN LIMITED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FROM 400 AM CST
MONDAY UNTIL 600 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ZONES ARZ003>007...ARZ012>016...
ARZ021>025...ARZ030>034...ARZ037>047...ARZ052>057...ARZ062>069.

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1030 AM CDT MON NOV 1 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1030 AM CDT MON NOV 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WARM...HUMID AIR IS OVER THE NATURAL STATE DUE TO A WARM FRONT IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS TODAY AND
INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE NATURAL STATE TODAY. IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE STATE...A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM...AND THUS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM FOR AREAS EAST OF A CAMDEN...TO FORDYCE...TO
LITTLE ROCK...TO SEARCY LINE.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT...RAINFALL COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES.
THUS...A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE...WITH
RAINFALL CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY...FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINS COULD CREATE FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS...AND RISES ON
LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS WILL
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS FARM LANDS NEAR RIVER BANKS
ARE LIKELY TO FLOOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
DRY AIR. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
940 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E YELLVILLE           36.23N 92.63W
11/01/2004                   MARION             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES UPROOTED. DAMAGE TO PORCH AND ROOF OF HOUSE ACROSS
            FROM RACE TRACK ON HWY 62 EAST.

0855 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE STEPHENS           33.45N 93.03W
11/01/2004                   OUACHITA           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HOUSE DAMAGED ON COUNTY ROAD 80 ALONG WITH ANIMALS
            KILLED.

&&

58