Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 3 2004

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING WITH MCS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA AT ISSUANCE TIME. THE MCS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. STORMS HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING
TREND WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING. BUT LOOK FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND MIDDAY. ACTUAL
LOCATION OF THIS STILL IN QUESTION AND IT MAY END UP BEING SOUTH
OF THE CWA. APPEARS NOW THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY HAVE STEADY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS MOVED OFF TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IT IS FOR NORTHERN
SECTIONS...EXPIRING AT 8 AM. IF IT LOOKS LIKE HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS AFTER THAT...MAY EXTEND LATER THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE OUTFLOWS LATER TODAY WILL HAVE
THE CHANCE OF BEING SEVERE BUT WILL NOT PLAY UP IN THE ZONES ESPECIALLY
SINCE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT COULD END UP HAPPENING OUTSIDE THE CWA.
LOWERED POPS IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND BY THIS EVENING HAVE
20 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH 30 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WENT WITH DRY FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. STUCK IN
20 PERCENT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EVENT SOME BOUNDARIES ARE
AROUND FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE HOT HUMID UNSTABLE AIR.
BEYOND THAT...LEFT SMALL POPS IN JUST IN CASE SHORT WAVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD COME CLOSE TO THE AREA OR MCS ACTIVITY
IN THE PLAINS MANAGES TO REACH INTO THE AREA. SURFACE PATTERN SETS
UP WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD BRING QUITE WARM CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA. HOWEVER THE RECENT RAINS SHOULD KEEP DEW POINTS OPPRESSIVE
AND SHOULD HOLD MAXES IN CHECK. WENT CLOSER TO FWC NUMBERS.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EXTENDED KEPT ABOUT THE SAME. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ABOUT WEDNESDAY WITH AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN AT THAT TIME.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    87  72  92  73 /  60  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       86  69  88  69 /  70  20  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  72  93  73 /  60  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     88  72  93  73 /  50  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  69  88  69 /  70  20  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     89  73  93  74 /  50  30  20  20
SEARCY AR         86  71  91  72 /  60  20  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      89  72  93  73 /  60  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  71  92  71 /  60  20  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 800 AM CDT
TODAY FOR ZONES
ARZ003>007...ARZ012>016...ARZ021>025...ARZ030>034...ARZ037>047.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
808 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
808 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 800 AM CDT SATURDAY NORTH AND CENTRAL...

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...DUE TO
THE COPIOUS MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL ARKANSAS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 2
INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
TONIGHT...AND WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ARKANSAS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF ARKANSAS TONIGHT. AS THIS ENERGY INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE
OVER THE STATE...HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS FRIDAY WILL HELP TO TRIGGER NEW
STORMS SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE STATE IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS SATURDAY...AS A COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE OVER THE
STATE. HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE STATE...AND WITH WARM UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY TONIGHT.

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