Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
205 PM CDT THU JUL  1 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
MODELS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
WITH JUST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINER DETAILS. WITH MODELS
GENERALLY ON THE SAME PAGE...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE UPPER TROF/UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE AREA FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

OVERALL WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS
STUBBORN UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA. FEATURE IS
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WITH NEARLY FULL LATITUDE...NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN WEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SO SYSTEM WILL ONLY CRAWL EASTWARD. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH PWAT VALUES
HOVERING NEAR TWO INCHES.

MANY AREAS OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN ARKANSAS HAVE SEEN SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING. SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN.
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED EARLIER TODAY IN BRADLEY COUNTY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BREAK IN THE ACTION TONIGHT AFTER ANY
DIURNAL SHOWERS DISSIPATE. WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AS SOMETHING COULD KICK UP ON AN OLD BOUNDARY OR IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. NEXT PIECE OF
ENERGY DROPS DOWN FROM OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND SWINGS ACROSS THE
STATE FRIDAY. WITH NATURE OF THE AIRMASS AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE...
WILL HAVE TO GO HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS. MESO-ETA DROPS
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT SO MORE RAIN IS LIKELY.
WITH SATURATED GROUND AND FLOODING ALREADY EXPERIENCED...WILL HOIST
A FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE WEST EARLY SATURDAY AS TROF AXIS/COLD FRONT
SWEEPS DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST. WILL TAPER OFF POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST SATURDAY MORNING AS SYSTEM PULLS OUT. WILL NOT ENTIRELY REMOVE
PRECIPITATION AS DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES
FLOATING AROUND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WILL WARM UP SUNDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS
DROP/CLOUDS BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR. WHILE MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MUGGY NIGHTS WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL
OVERALL.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BY EARLY TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BRING ABOUT A NOTICEABLE WARM-UP. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER MOST
AREAS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO FAR OUT OF
HAND. THEN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR AN IMAGINARY LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BATESVILLE TO NEAR MENA.
COOLER AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL LIE TO THE NORTH OF THIS
EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT HOWEVER WARMER
AND HUMID AIR WILL PERSIST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STALL THEN BECOME A WARM
FRONT BEFORE MOVING BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA BY THURSDAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF ARKANSAS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    70  84  70  87 /  30  50  50  40
HARRISON AR       68  82  68  86 /  40  60  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    70  85  70  88 /  30  50  50  40
PINE BLUFF AR     71  85  72  87 /  30  50  50  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  81  68  85 /  40  60  50  40
MONTICELLO AR     72  85  72  88 /  30  40  50  40
SEARCY AR         69  83  70  87 /  30  50  50  40
MOUNT IDA AR      68  85  70  88 /  30  50  50  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  83  69  87 /  30  60  50  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 400 AM CDT FRIDAY UNTIL 400 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR ZONES ARZ052>057...ARZ062>069.
&&

56/38

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
235 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
235 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER ARKANSAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG BRIEFLY...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AND LIGHT
WINDS AT THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS...THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING...
AND THEY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF...HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVY RAINS MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP CLOSE TO ARKANSAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. IT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOUR-STATE AREA OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTH
EAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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