Flash Flood Warning 68, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
240 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SFC FNTL BNDRY STILL STALLED OUT ACRS CNTRL AR THIS AFTN. SCTD
CONVECTION HAS FIRED VCNTY OF THE BNDRY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ACCOMPANYING SOME OF THE CELLS OVER CNTRL AR ATTM. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONT THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE
FNT IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVR THE FA. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL UPPER LVL
IMPULSES WILL PASS ACRS THE MID-SOUTH TO PROVIDE ADDED LIFT FOR
CONVECTIVE FORMATION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW ALOFT. HAVE HELD OFF ON A FF
WATCH FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLD NATURE OF FF POTENTIAL. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.

GFS STILL APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AND IS REFLECTED BY THE HIGH MOS POPS. PREFER THE LOWER POPS
INDCD BY THE NGM AND ETA MOS KEEPING VALUES IN THE SCTD TO LIKELY
CAT THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

MODELS STILL INDCD NEXT CDFNT APCHG WRN AR LATE IN THE SHORT TERM.
HAVE KEPT POPS IN CHC CAT FOR NOW AND SEE HOW TIMING PLAYS OUT WITH
THE MODELS IN THE COMING DAYS.

TEMPS WILL BE A TOUGH CALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHCS. HAVE TRENDED A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS MOST AREAS
AND ACCEPTED MOS MINS THRU THE PD.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE BY SUNDAY THEN MOVE BACK NORTH AND OUT
OF THE CWA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE
CWA THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY BACK AND FORTH. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
BRIEFLY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AND LIGHT
WINDS AT THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS...THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING...
AND THEY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF...HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVY RAINS MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS SEVERAL MORE UPPER LOWS WILL AFFECT
ARKANSAS. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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