Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AS FAR AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES GO. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST IN THE
DETAILS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING WAVE FOR
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ETA
DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT...GFS CONTINUES TO
EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AND GENERATES WAY TOO MUCH
QPF. GFS SOLUTION WILL NEED TO BE DISCARDED THIS MORNING IN FAVOR OF
AN ETA/MESO-ETA COMPROMISE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A VERY UNUSUAL LOOKING PATTERN FOR MID
JUNE WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND AN INTENSE POLAR
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE
TOO MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE
BUT THE POLAR VORTEX ONLY MOVES FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY.
MAIN PLAYER FOR THE AREA WILL BE A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WHILE LOW WILL RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE STATE AND LIKELY
STALL OUT FOR A TIME OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONT OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. FRONT FORECAST TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST AND BISECT THE
STATE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TRIO OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THIS MORNING LINE UP FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. AM EXPECTING THESE TO DECAY AS THEY
TRACK EAST BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LIKELY AS REMAINS OF
THESE COMPLEXES SWING THROUGH. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP IN ITS VICINITY OVER THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
TRANSLATE EASTWARD. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK
BUT AIRMASS REMAINS TROPICAL IN NATURE AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREAT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT OVERNIGHT FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN
1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NOT TERRIBLY OMINOUS
BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. NO HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED
NOW BUT IF APPROACHING COMPLEXES DROP CONSIDERABLE RAIN TODAY...
SITUATION MAY NEED TO BE REEVALUATED.

LOW WILL TRACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT QPF OUTPUTS. WILL NEED TO
TOTALLY REVAMP POPS AND QPF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
SYSTEM SLOWLY SINKS TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MAY HAVE TO KEEP
LIKELY POPS THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO ADVECT IN. AREA DRIES
OUT THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL. RESPITE FROM
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE BRIEF AS NEW FRONT BEGINS TO DROP DOWN
FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. MAV NUMBERS GENERALLY
COOLER THAN THE FWC AND LOOK REASONABLE.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO LONG TERM GRIDS. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FEATURE IN WEATHER SATURDAY...BUT LOWERED POPS SOME
DUE TO FASTER MOVEMENT NOW SHOWN BY THE LATEST RUN. LATEST GFS IS
SHOWING DRY PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST. FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST. DID NOT GO WITH A DRASTIC CHANGE AS THE SOLUTION WILL
CHANGE MANY TIMES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    82  61  86  67 /  70  80  80  30
HARRISON AR       75  56  80  62 /  70  80  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  61  86  67 /  70  80  80  30
PINE BLUFF AR     83  62  87  68 /  70  80  80  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  76  58  80  62 /  70  80  70  10
MONTICELLO AR     83  63  88  68 /  70  80  80  40
SEARCY AR         82  61  85  66 /  70  80  70  20
MOUNT IDA AR      81  60  86  66 /  70  80  70  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  60  85  65 /  70  80  70  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-231000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR IS IN PLACE. AS THE
HUMID AIR INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. MUCH OF THE NATURAL STATE IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
AIR...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO TWO INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
WEDNESDAY..WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES EAST FROM OKLAHOMA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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