Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
144 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
CURRENTLY...COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND
WIDELY SCATTERD CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FORM SOUTH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE UP AND DOWN AS THE COMPLEX
HEADS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...WITH SOME STORMS REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS...AND WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. SEVERE WINDOW WILL BE
BRIEF...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTH LOUISIANA TONIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER RED RIVER VALLEY AGAIN AS
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES TOWARD WESTERN ARKANSAS.
THUS...MCS POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOKS GOOD FOR TONIGHT. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE SYSTEMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY WITH SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP...GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE...AND STORM MOTION AROUND 5
KNOTS. FOR SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS REMNANTS OF
MCS INTERACT WITH HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BACK
TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...LOOKS
LIKE THERE COULD BE ANOTHER MCS MOVING DOWN OUT OF KANSAS/MISSOURI
AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
NORTH...FRONT IS LIKELY TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY /DAY
3/...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY AND THE
HEATING OF THE DAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AT MIDWEEK WITH THE CHANCE
OF MCS ACTIVITY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH. GFS INDICATES WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY. IF
THIS WERE TO VERIFY...WOULD NEED LIKELY POPS...BUT THIS FAR OUT
THE SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES SO WILL JUST GO
WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR NOW. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF DRIER
WEATHER MOVING IN AFTER THAT AND DID NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AT THIS TIME. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMP FORECASTS BUT DID BUMP UP MAXES A LITTLE FOR WEDNESDAY AS IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM HUMID SECTOR THAT DAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    68  84  70  89 /  30  40  30  30
HARRISON AR       60  80  68  83 /  30  30  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  86  72  88 /  40  40  30  30
PINE BLUFF AR     70  87  71  89 /  30  40  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  61  85  68  84 /  30  30  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     71  87  72  89 /  40  40  30  30
SEARCY AR         67  85  70  89 /  30  40  30  30
MOUNT IDA AR      69  86  72  87 /  40  40  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  85  70  87 /  30  40  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM 57/LONG TERM 29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM SAT JUN 19 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
TODAY AND STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE...AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM INTENSE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE NOT LIKELY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. ALSO...THE AIR NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE TROPICAL
IN NATURE. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THAT COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND IN
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED
IN NATURE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL NOT REMAIN STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS VERY LONG BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY. AT THAT TIME...SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE
FRONT TO KEEP A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION BUT IT APPEARS
THAT NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE MINIMAL BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
NATURAL STATE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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