Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1050 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW ANALYZED OVER EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW
NEAR KJAN. AREAS OF RAIN MOVING MOSTLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE BIGGEST CONCENTRATION IN THE SOUTH. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
THIS MORNING UPPED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN CENTRAL AND EAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND WENT TO 70 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH. UPPED POPS TO
30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST. NORMALLY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND EFFECTS
OF KANSAS MCS OVERNIGHT WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
BUT SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWED EFFECTS OF TROPICAL LOWS IN THIS
AREA AND CIRCULATION AROUND IT DISRUPTING THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGES OF
THE DECAYING MCS...SO ANY OUTFLOWS FROM THIS WILL LIKELY WASH OUT
AND NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO INCREASE CLOUDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMP AND WIND FORECASTS LOOK GOOD
FOR NOW AND ONLY OTHER UPDATES WERE TO TAKE OUT MORNING WORDING.
FIRST IMPRESSIONS ARE THAT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE MADE TO
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-161000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD
TODAY. WARM...HUMID NEARLY TROPICAL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
ARKANSAS. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SET OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR. SOME SPOTS COULD PICK
UP 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR THE LARGER RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. THE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL BE AFFECTING ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY...SO
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE LOW WILL DRIFT
EAST OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING THEN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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