Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
340 PM CDT WED JUN  2 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
OVERALL CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THE CWA HAVE INCREASED DURING PAST
60 MINUTES. INSTABILITY ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE VALUES ABOVE 3500
J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS PROFILERS REVEAL VERY
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CELLS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ELEVATED SO FAR. HAVE ORIENTED FORECASTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

OVERALL FOCUS FOR MAXIMUM CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE WEST DURING THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARIES IN THE VICINITY MAY STILL FOCUS
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN LONG TERM MODELS...AS GFS DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ENSEMBLE MEANS NOT SHOWING THIS
DEVELOPMENT...AND GOING TOWARD A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS
SUCH...TRENDED POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ALSO RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    65  84  62  84 /  30  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       57  80  57  81 /  40  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    65  84  63  84 /  50  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     66  84  63  85 /  30  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  57  79  56  81 /  30  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  85  64  86 /  30  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         64  82  60  83 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      64  84  64  85 /  60  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  82  63  83 /  50  10  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

55/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1250 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...LOCATED IN EXTREME NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...WILL MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE...AND THIS
WILL INTERACT WITH THE COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH
SEVERE STORMS A POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AS WELL. WHILE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE...STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN
THE SOUTH...BUT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS COMPLEX WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IT COULD
AFFECT SOME AREAS OF THE SOUTH. IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS REACH
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEMS OR OTHER THUNDERSTORM BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN AND AROUND ARKANSAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL BE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG ONE OF THE BOUNDARIES
IN THE AREA COULD MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS RESULTING IN LOCALLY
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. THE CHANCE OF THIS
WILL BE ENHANCED AT NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS.

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
404 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     HAIL             BELLEFONTE              36.20N 93.05W
06/02/2004  1.75 INCH        BOONE              AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
406 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             VALLEY SPRINGS          36.15N 92.99W
06/02/2004  0.75 INCH        BOONE              AR   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
423 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             WILLIAMS JUNCTION       34.88N 92.77W
06/02/2004  0.75 INCH        PERRY              AR   PUBLIC

&&

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
435 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     HAIL             3 NW GUION              35.96N 91.98W
06/02/2004  0.75 INCH        IZARD              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

22