Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONT FOR THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST ROUND OF RAINFALL CONTS TO AFFECT ERN AND SRN
AR EARLY THIS MRNG. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO SWRN AR AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NEWD LATER THIS MRNG.

MODELS CONT TO INDC AN ACTIVE SWLY UPPER FLOW FOR THE REGION THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES
AND PRECIP CHC ALWAYS A FCST CHALLENGE. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ETA SOLUTIONS FOR THIS FCST.

WILL CONT WITH RAIN CHCS OVER THE SERN HALF OF MY FA FOR MUCH OF
TODAY WITH HIGHEST POPS FURTHER TO THE SE. OVER NRN AR...DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SW WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THERE TODAY. EXPECT
SFC WINDS TO INCREASE TODAY AS SFC LOW OVER NE LIFTS NEWD. THINKING
RIGHT NOW IS THAT WINDS MAY APCH LAKE WIND ADVY CRITERIA BRIEFLY
OVER NWRN AR AND PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. EXPECT A
GOOD WARMUP THIS AFTN WHERE SUNSHINE PREVAILS. WILL HOLD READINGS
OVER SERN AR DOWN A FEW DEGREES BLO MOS WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED.

SFC CDFNT TO OUR WEST THIS MRNG IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO AR LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE BY TUE. HAVE LEFT
SOME RAIN CHCS IN FOR SERN AR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE. WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FOR TUE.

BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH SHIFTS EWD TUE NIGHT
AND BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT. ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE WILL ALSO BE APCHG FROM THE SW...LEADING TO INCRSG RAIN
CHCS FROM THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT INTO THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CAN
PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ACRS AR. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE WED THRU THU TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM IS FCST TO PASS TO THE N OF AR LATE FRI INTO
EARLY SAT. LOOKS LIKE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP RAIN
CHCS TO THE N.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS LATER
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REST OF THE
STATE BY TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO SOUTH OF THE STATE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE STALLED OUT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING BACK NORTHWARD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA.

BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS STATES. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE SAME TIME. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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