Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
930 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE TORNADO WATCH. MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED...HOWEVER FLOODING WILL BE THE NEXT
CONCERN. REPORTS OF FLOODING ALREADY RECEIVED IN FAULKNER AND WHITE
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE LITTLE ROCK METRO AREA EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTH.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
950 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-221000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
950 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL ACT AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
THE AREA...HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT
WILL DIMINISH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED WITH LESS
OF A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS MAY STILL OCCUR...WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL EXIT THE STATE INTO MISSOURI
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER LULL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MORE STORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. GIVEN
THIS...STORMS THAT DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

THE STORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED WILL OCCUR MAINLY AT NIGHT...WITH
STORMS MENTIONED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...WITH AREAS OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCALES.

THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY CHANGE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

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