Flash Flood Warning 100, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
330 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AT ISSUE TIME. HEAVIEST RAIN HAS SHIFTED INTO
EASTERN AREAS WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE WEST WHICH HAS BEEN DECREASING.
LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY BEING IN
EASTERN AREAS AND ONLY AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS IN THE WEST. THUS
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE WEST AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH
TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. ALL ACTIVITY MAY DECREASE
LATER TONIGHT BUT WITH MAIN FRONTAL ZONE STILL IN THE AREA...NEW
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT REMAINS POSSIBLE. UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE
TO THE EAST TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE CWA WILL BE MOSTLY INTO THE COOL
SECTOR SO THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA.
MORE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO THE CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER. WILL GO MOSTLY WITH RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDER. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF MORE HEAVY RAIN LATER
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE THIS
FOR FURTHER FLOOD WATCHES. MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...BRIEFLY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE
TILT. LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER
WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY SLOT FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH.
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY. TEMP FORECASTS
WILL BE TRICKY. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD VARIABILITY AND THE COOLER
MAV NUMBERS COULD BE REASONABLE. BASICALLY WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN MAV AND FWC ON TEMPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH FROM MISSOURI SUNDAY...BUT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    61  66  51  58 /  90  80  70  60
HARRISON AR       51  53  42  50 /  80  80  80  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  65  50  58 /  80  80  70  60
PINE BLUFF AR     62  67  52  60 / 100  80  80  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  53  54  43  50 /  90  80  80  80
MONTICELLO AR     64  68  53  62 / 100  80  80  50
SEARCY AR         60  65  50  57 / 100  80  70  60
MOUNT IDA AR      58  64  50  57 /  80  80  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  61  47  54 /  80  80  70  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 600 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR ZONES ARZ016...ARZ024>025...ARZ032>034...
ARZ043>047...ARZ055>057...ARZ062>0 69..
&&

29/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
345 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVANCE THROUGH THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD
FRONT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING OVER MAINLY EASTERN
ARKANSAS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE EAST. THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.

ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE. WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL NOW OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES OVER
EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM FOR
ROUGHLY EAST OF A BATESVILLE TO BENTON TO CAMDEN LINE. AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RUN OFF CONCERNS AND RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND
STREAMS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RAINFALL MAY BE
ENHANCED AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY CRAWL TO THE
EAST...NOT REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
TUESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON IT. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS
LIKELY OVER THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH ANOTHER INCH OF
RAIN OR MORE POSSIBLE.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL HAS TO CROSS
THE STATE WITH RAIN A POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN. IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WEDNESDAY WILL BE OVER THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD CREATE MORE FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS
...AND RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL
INTERESTS WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS FARM LANDS
NEAR RIVER BANKS ARE LIKELY TO FLOOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT....ACCOMPANIED BY DRIER AIR. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR FLOODING
CONCERNS.

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
242 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     TSTM WND DMG     KANSAS                  33.86N 92.99W
11/01/2004                   CLARK              AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. SOME OUTBUILDINGS DAMAGED.
            TIN ROOFS OFF DOG KENNELS.

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SSE HAMPTON           33.46N 92.43W
11/01/2004                   CALHOUN            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE MOBILE HOME DESTROYED. TREES DOWN.

&&

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
304 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CHEROKEE VILLAGE        36.31N 91.53W
11/01/2004                   SHARP              AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN. ROOF DAMAGE. SOME BOATS BLOWN OVER IN LAKE.

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SEARCY                  35.24N 91.73W
11/01/2004                   WHITE              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROADS INTO HARDING UNVERSITY FLOODED. SOCCER FIELDS
            FLOODED. SIDE ROADS OFF BEEBE-CAPPS HIGHWAY FLOODED. HIGH
            WATER RESCUE OF 2 PEOPLE OUT OF A STRANDED TRUCK.

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HUMPHREY                34.42N 91.70W
11/01/2004                   ARKANSAS           AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROOFS BLOWN OFF. TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
308 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S CALMER              33.94N 92.03W
11/01/2004                   CLEVELAND          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO CHICKEN HOUSES DETROYED WITH NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

220

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