Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
225 PM EST TUE MAY 18 2004

SHORT TERM...TNGT/WED...

BOX ISSUED JUST TO OUR W...TSTMS INCRSG IN INTENSITY/CVRG TO OUR
W...AND HV UPPED POPS IN THE NW CRNR OF THE CWA TO LKLY. AS
DISCUSSED IN PRVS AFD FEEL MAIN THREAT COULD BE HVY RAIN/FLSH
FLD...BUT HOPEFULLY W/ FORWARD MVMNT FASTER TDA STORMS WL MV QUICK
ENUF TO PRECLUDE TOO MUCH RAIN OVR ONE LOCATION.

FNT APRCHS MASON-DIXON ARND SUNRISE...CONSIDERABLE CLD CVR...LKLY
POPS...DEEP MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGS AS
WELL.

WOODY

.LONG TERM...WED NGHT THROUGH TUE...

HI PRES CRRNTLY OFF MID ATLC COAST RETRGRDS BCK AS H5 HIGH OVR TX
MIGRATES ESTWARD.  THIS WL MNTN S/SW SFC FLO AND UNSTBL ATM.

NEXT MAIN SFC FEATURE IS WRM FRNT FRM SFC LW IN MDWST ACRSS CWA ON
FRI.  SFC-H7 DELTA THETA-E ON FRI REACHES 20 PER AVN SOLN...AS ATMS
AOA H7 DRIES OUT PER AVN XSCTN AS PWS INCR. THUS POTL INSTBL ON FRI
AND LIFT WTH WRM FRNT AND S OF STBLTY GRAD HAS CWA IN INCR LKLHD OF
TSRA AND PSSBL SVR ON FRI.

SFC SWSTRLYS THRU RMDNR OF FCST PD...CONTNG UNSTBL ENV FOR SCT TSRA
ACTVTY PRCTLY THRU ALL PDS.

JL
&&

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-010000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1137 AM EDT TUE MAY 18 2004

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-190800-
ALBEMARLE VA-ALLEGANY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-AUGUSTA VA-BERKELEY WV-
CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA-
FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-GREENE VA-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HARFORD MD-
HIGHLAND VA-HOWARD MD-JEFFERSON WV-KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA-
MADISON VA-MINERAL WV-MONTGOMERY MD-MORGAN WV-NELSON VA-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD-
1137 AM EDT TUE MAY 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WASHINGTON DC.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST
VIRGINIA...AND WASHINGTON DC. ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

 .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
423 PM EDT TUE MAY 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N CRIGLERSVILLE       38.47N 78.30W
05/18/2004                   MADISON            VA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED NEAR NETHERS IN NORTH MADISON
            COUNTY.

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MADISON                 38.38N 78.26W
05/18/2004                   MADISON            VA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN THE COUNTY.

&&

MANNING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
429 PM EDT TUE MAY 18 2004

MDZ002-003-182130-
ALLEGANY MD-WASHINGTON MD-
429 PM EDT TUE MAY 18 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED IN EASTERN ALLEGANY COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LITTLE ORLEANS IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 25 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE STORM WILL BE HEADING INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY BY 4:45 PM. RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

ROGOWSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
526 PM EDT TUE MAY 18 2004

MDZ002>005-VAZ028-031-042-WVZ049>053-190000-
ALLEGANY MD-BERKELEY WV-CARROLL MD-CLARKE VA-FREDERICK VA-
FREDERICK MD-HAMPSHIRE WV-JEFFERSON WV-LOUDOUN VA-MINERAL WV-
MORGAN WV-WASHINGTON MD-
526 PM EDT TUE MAY 18 2004

...BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MARYLAND...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WEST VIRGINIA PAN
HANDLE...AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA IS MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
ALLEGANY FRONT AROUND 6:00 PM...PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
MARYLAND AND EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA BETWEEN 6:30 PM AND 8:00 PM.

HEAVY RAIN AND INTENSE LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

ROGOWSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
550 PM EDT TUE MAY 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             LAUREL MD               39.10N 76.86W
05/18/2004  0.88 INCH        PRINCE GEORGES     MD   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE ALSO REPORTED DOWN.

&&

MANNING