Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
225 PM EST SUN MAY 16 2004

SHORT TERM...TNGT/MON...

ISOLD RW/TRW DVLPG ACRS THE WRN SXN OF THE CWA SHOULD MV E AS AFTN
PROGRESSES. HV PUT IN A 20 POP ACRS THE WHOLE AREA...BUT XPCT THINGS
WL DIE DOWN BY MID EVE AS DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLRG
AFTR MDNGT...WINDS GO LGT. WL LV MTN OF PTCHY FOG IN THE PREDAWN
FCST. DONT THINK WERE TALKING 1/4 MILE...BUT 3/4-1 MILE IS PSBL.

FNTL BNDRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA HAS LOST WHATEVER PUNCH IT
HAD. THIS WL TRACK TO THE N AS HIGH PRES OFF CST REGAINS CONTROL OF
MID ATLC WX. FEEL LKLY SCENARIO WL ONCE AGN BE AFTN RW/TRW DVLPG OVR
THE MTNS THEN TRACKING NE AFTR FORMING. ETA BUFKIT SHOWS CAPES ARND
1500 MON AFTN...ALTHO HELICITIES ONCE AGN VERY WEAK. WL MAINTAIN 20
POP.

TNGTS TEMPS L60S E OF THE MTNS...U50S W. L 80S E OF THE MTNS MON.

WOODY

LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-SUN)

TEMPS BACK AOA 80F TUE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DO NOT SEE ANY
TRIGGER TO JUSTIFY 30 POPS OR HIGHER SO LOWERED POPS TO 20 IN GRIDS
WITH NO MENTIONING IN TEXT PRODUCTS. WED STILL APPEARS TO BE OUR
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LKS TUE NIGHT AND STALLS NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON
LINE. BOTH ETA AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CORN COUNTRY WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD ALG
STALLED OUT BDRY. REST OF THE EXTENDED...BASICALLY WENT WITH HPC
IDEA OF KEEPING ANY FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPS ABV NORMAL.
KEPT 20 POPS IN GRIDS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME
WITH NO MENTION IN TEXT PRODUCTS.

ROSA

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-010000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-170800-
ALBEMARLE VA-ALLEGANY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-AUGUSTA VA-BERKELEY WV-
CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA-
FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-GREENE VA-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HARFORD MD-
HIGHLAND VA-HOWARD MD-JEFFERSON WV-KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA-
MADISON VA-MINERAL WV-MONTGOMERY MD-MORGAN WV-NELSON VA-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD-
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WASHINGTON DC.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT. HOWEVER...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

 .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.