Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EST TUE MAY 11 2004

UPDATING TO REMOVE EVENING POPS AS ACTIVITY OVER THE SW DYING OUT
QUICKLY. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE SRN/SWRN COUNTIES WHERE RAIN WAS
PRETTY HEAVY. RAISED TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE FACT TEMPS
THIS MORNING DID NOT DROP A WHOLE A LOT. KINDA LIKE SUMMER.

ROSA

PREVIOUS AFD...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT AND MODAYS CONVECTION.ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOSTLY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED STORMS LINGERING
TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. NO REAL
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT LEFTOVER MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. LISTEMAA

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE VA/NC COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY.  THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS HIGH ALOFT TRANSLATES INTO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
APPEAR TO BE THE DRIEST DAYS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE MID
ATLANTIC MAY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND STALL OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT...WHILE TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.  THE 00Z MRF INDICATES THAT THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY.  THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERS THROUGH
DAY 7.  OKULSKI

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1130 AM EDT WED MAY 12 2004

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-130800-
ALBEMARLE VA-ALLEGANY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-AUGUSTA VA-BERKELEY WV-
CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA-
FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-GREENE VA-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HARFORD MD-
HIGHLAND VA-HOWARD MD-JEFFERSON WV-KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA-
MADISON VA-MINERAL WV-MONTGOMERY MD-MORGAN WV-NELSON VA-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WASHINGTON DC.

.DAY ONE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE SLOWLY...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING
AREAS. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

 .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

LISTEMAA