Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EST SUN MAY 9 2004

UPDATE..

XCPT WHERE CONVECTION IS GOING ON RMNDR OF AREA LOOKS TO BE M CLR
OVRNGT. SOME PTCHY FOG IN MRNG...BUT NOT DENSE ENUF TO MAKE MENTION
OF IN ZNS. ILL BE SPENDING THE NEXT PD OF TIME WATCHING TO SEE IF
THE YORK CO. STORM WL SLIDE INTO HARFORD AT SVR LVLS...OR SLIDE E
INTO CECIL LK THE OTHER ONE DID.

WOODY

TONIGHT-MON...

LOOKS LIKE SUMMER WILL BE HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE WITH SUBTROPICAL
HIGH FCST TO REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LIGHT SRLY FLOW AROUND HIGH WILL PROVIDE REGION WITH WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH TYPICAL ISOLD TO WDLY SCT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION AND PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING. WENT FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW NEAR 90F AWAY FROM THE WATER GIVEN EXPECTED WARM START TO
THE DAY AND H85 TEMPS NEAR 15C.

WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS LIKE
BLUE RIDGE WILL BE POTENTIAL PLACE FOR INITIATION WITH ANY ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY PROPAGATING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE A LOCALIZED
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN WBZ LVLS BLO 10KFT AND
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. STORMS SHOULD BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY
WITH LACK OF SHEAR. POTENTIAL EXIST FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NCNTRL PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD ROLL ALG WARM FRONT ACROSS
SERN PA THIS EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY PHLS AND CTPS
CWAS WITH HARFORD CTY MD HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOMETHING
FROM THIS POTENTIAL MCS. WELL CONTINUE TO WATCH.

ROSA

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE THAT WILL EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES MOST OF THE WEEK. WARM HUMID GULF AIR WITH TEMPS
IN THE 80S WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEK WITH A SCHC/CHC OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EVERY DAY. WESTERN TROF MOVES A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. ND

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

ROSA/ND