Severe Thunderstorm Warning 250, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1220 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO REMOVE WATCH HEADLINE. TORNADO WATCH
836 EXPIRED AT MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...406 PM...

SHORT TERM...

HONESTLY THIS HAS BEEN AN XTRMLY REACTIONARY SHIFT - HV SPENT MOST
OF DAY ISSUING PRODUCTS/GIVING BRIEFINGS/DOING INTERVIEWS. HVG BEEN
ON FOR THE PAST SVRL DAYS I HV AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE SYNOPTICS
BEHIND WHAT IS HAPPENING ATTM. XPCT WELL BE ISSUING MR TORS DURG
THE NEXT SVRL HRS. ALTHO WE HV NOT RCVD MUCH RAFL SO FAR STILL BLV
THAT IN TRPCL ENVIRONMENT LARGE AMTS OF RA COULD FALL IN SHORT AMT
OF TIME. WE HV DROPPED THE PSBL TOTALS TO 3-5.

IT LOOKS LK PCPN THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE NW SXN OF CWA
DURG SAT AFTN...BCMG BRZY AS WIND TURNS NRLY.

WOODY

LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-FRI)

THERE WILL BE A TASTE OF FALL IN THE AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS IN. OVERNIGHT TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP INTO THE
40S IN SOME SPOTS OUT WEST WITH 50S MORE COMMON EAST. SKIES EXPECTED
TO CLEAR RAPIDLY SAT NIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN GUSTY NRLY
WINDS. DONT HAVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED. WILL ONLY
HAVE TO DEAL WITH ANY RIVER FLOODING THAT MAY BE ONGOING.

ROSA
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM FOR ZONE DCZ001.

MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM FOR ZONES
MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014...MDZ016>018.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM FOR ZONES
VAZ021...VAZ025>031...VAZ036>042...VAZ050>057.

WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM FOR ZONES WVZ048>055.

&&

CORRECTED TO REMOVE CODING FOR TORNADO WATCH.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1129 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-180800-
ALBEMARLE VA-ALLEGANY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-AUGUSTA VA-BERKELEY WV-
CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA-
FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-GREENE VA-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HARFORD MD-
HIGHLAND VA-HOWARD MD-JEFFERSON WV-KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA-
MADISON VA-MINERAL WV-MONTGOMERY MD-MORGAN WV-NELSON VA-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD-
1129 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WASHINGTON DC.

.DAY ONE...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...THE
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE
RAIN CONTINUES...SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE POTOMAC RIVER WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1042 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ANNANDALE               38.83N 77.21W
09/17/2004                   FAIRFAX            VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            HIGH WATER ON ROADS IN WEST ANNANDALE AND WEST FAIRFAX.
            WOODBURN ROAD IN ANNANDALE ABOUT TO BE CLOSED.

&&

RDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1046 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WARRENTON               38.72N 77.80W
09/17/2004                   FAUQUIER           VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED COUNTYWIDE DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

RDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1053 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LEESBURG                39.10N 77.56W
09/17/2004                   LOUDOUN            VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            LAWSON ROAD IN LEESBURG CLOSED BY HIGH WATER. FLOODING
            ALSO REPORTED AT LOUDOUN COUNTY PARKWAY AND ROUTE 7.

&&

RDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1112 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TORNADO          1 N INWOOD              39.37N 78.05W
09/17/2004                   BERKELEY           WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 6 INJ *** NUMEROUS STRUCTURES COLLAPSED. 20 IN
            DARKSVILLE ALONE. MAJOR ACCIDENT CAUSED ON 1-81. 4 INJ IN
            ACCIDENT 2 OTHERWISE.

&&

STRONG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1209 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ028-030-031-040>042-
050>057-WVZ051>053-180500-
ANNE ARUNDEL-ARLINGTON-BERKELEY-CALVERT-CARROLL-CHARLES-CLARKE-
CULPEPER-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FAIRFAX-FAUQUIER-FREDERICK MD-
FREDERICK VA-HARFORD-HOWARD-JEFFERSON-KING GEORGE-LOUDOUN-MONTGOMERY-
MORGAN-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-ORANGE-PRINCE GEORGES-PRINCE WILLIAM-
RAPPAHANNOCK-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-SPOTSYLVANIA-ST MARYS-STAFFORD-
WARREN-WASHINGTON-
1209 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

...TORNADO WATCH HAS EXPIRED...

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 836 THAT INCLUDED THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
NORTHERN VIRGINIA...EASTERNMOST WEST VIRGINIA...AND MOST OF MARYLAND
WEST OF THE BAY HAS EXPIRED. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...THE TORNADO THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED.

REMEMBER...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

STRONG/CPW

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