Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Baltimore/Washington
NWS Baltimore/Washington issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 31, 2004, 6:29 PM EDT for Frederick County, City of Winchester, Virginia. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 31, 2004, 6:29 PM EDT (22:29 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 31, 2004, 7:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 46 min
- Issued by
- NWS Baltimore/Washington
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties City of Winchester, VA, Frederick County, VA
The radar
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 75 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 819 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 553 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 48 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 85 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 31, 3:30 PM EDT, 2 hours 59 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 3:30 PM EDT, 2 hours 59 minutes before
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</html>Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 4:58 PM EDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 458 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2004 DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042- 050>057-WVZ048>055-010457- ALBEMARLE VA-ALLEGANY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-AUGUSTA VA-BERKELEY WV- CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA- FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-GREENE VA-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HARFORD MD- HIGHLAND VA-HOWARD MD-JEFFERSON WV-KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA- MADISON VA-MINERAL WV-MONTGOMERY MD-MORGAN WV-NELSON VA- NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV- PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA- RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD- SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD- 458 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WASHINGTON DC. .DAY ONE... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA MAY PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE STORMS DEVELOP...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER RAINFALL AND ANY FLOOD REPORTS WILL BE APPRECIATED.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 31, 5:58 PM EDT, 31 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 558 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2004 VAZ028-WVZ050-055-312245- FREDERICK VA-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV- 558 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2004 ...THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY... AT 558 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCCAULEY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. LOCAL RAINFALL MAY EXCEED AN INCH AND A HALF IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. THIS WOULD PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ALONGSIDE ROADWAYS...AND CAUSE RAPID RISES ON CREEKS AND SMALLER RIVERS. THE COMMUNITIES OF RIO...WARDENSVILLE...AND WILDE ACRES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 645 PM EDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. HTS
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.