Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
209 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2004

.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND TMRW...
WK BOUNDARY WL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYER THIS AFTN THIS EVE. AMS HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVR THE CWFA THIS AFTN. OBJ ANAL SHOWS
SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3K J/KG OVR THE WRN 2/3 OF THE CWFA. MIXED LYR
CAPE AROUND 1.5K J/KG LACK OF SFC FORCING WL KEEP COVERAGE UNDER
CONTROL DESPITE VRY HIGH GUIDANCE POPS. CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE
ATTM ALG THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHALNDS AND BLUE
RIDGE. WOULD XPCT CONVECTION TO CONT TO TAKE ROOT AND STRENGTHEN AS
THE AFTN WEARS ON. TODAY LOOKS A SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MODERATE
TO STG INSTAB BUT WEAKER SHEAR. HIGH PWATS SAY THAT HVY RAFL WL BE A
PROB WITH STORMS TODAY SO WL INCLUDE APPROPRIATE WORDING. ANY HIGH
WATER PROBS WL BE TOO ISOLD TO WARRANT A WATCH ISSUANCE.

WL CONT WITH CHC POPS FOR TNGT TAPERING OFF TWD MORN. SUMMERLIKE
TEMPS OVNGT AND TMRW WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE. FORCING WL BE EVEN
LESS TMRW SAVE FOR ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LOW CHC POPS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...THU AND BEYOND...
CHGS IN THE OFFING IN THE MED RANGE. RIDGING IN THE EAST AND A
DECENT CUTOFF OVR TX TODAY. MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WELL N OF THE
CWFA. UPR LOW EVENTUALLY SHEARS OUT ALLOWING WEAK IMPULSES TO EJECT
NE INTO THE MID ATL. GIVEN THE NEAR TROPICAL AMS IN PLACE FOR MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WK ONLY WK FORCING WL LEAD TO WDLY SCT TO
SCT CONVECTION IN THE AFTN. SHORTWV ENERGY DIVING S FM CANADA WL
HELP TO PUSH A BOUNDARY THRU DURING THE WKND BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...ISOLD HVY RAFL WL CONT
TO BE A PROB UNTIL FROPA OVR THE WKND. VRY WARM TEMPS OVR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS MAY IN TURN LEAD TO TEMPS APCHG HEAT ADV CRITERIA BUT ATTM
LOOKS LIKE HEAT INDICES WL REMAIN BLO THE CENTURY MARK FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. LTR SHIFTS WL HV TO REEVALUATE HEAT POTENTIAL.
OTRW...PREV FCST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND HV MADE ONLY MINOR CHGS
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...SC CLDS THRU MIDDAY OVR CNTRL PTNS OF THE PHL CWA...
INCLUDING MOST OF THE TAF SITES...HAVE ERODED AND RAISED, AND SHUD
CONT TO DO SO THRU THE MID AFTN PD. CUD BE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN HAZE
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER, WL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RW/TRW TO FORM TWD LATE
AFTN/EVE AS THEY ARE ALREADY RAPDILY DVLPG IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AMS JUST TO THE SW...AND WE SHUD FOLLOW SUIT IN THE WAKE OF THE SC
EROSIION. AS A RESULT WL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR EVE TRW. IN
ADDITION, ENERGY FM THE MORE ATTENTION-GETTING CONVTN WELL W SHUD
ARRIVE TWD/AFT MIDN SO WL KEEP IN A CHC THRU THE OVRNGT PD... PSBLY
ACTING AS A REPEAT OF LAST NITE. COPIOUS LO LVL MSTR COMBINED WITH
PSBL LCLY EXCESSIVE PCPN IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE MVFR SC/FOG
OVRNGT AND ERY WED MRNG...BFR ERODING AND RAISING LATER WED MRNG.
WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC OVR THE 2 FAR NRN LWX TAF SITES...WHICH
WE ARE TENDING IN BACKUP MODE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MANNING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1115 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2004

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-161100-
ALBEMARLE VA-ALLEGANY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-AUGUSTA VA-BERKELEY WV-
CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA-
FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-GREENE VA-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HARFORD MD-
HIGHLAND VA-HOWARD MD-JEFFERSON WV-KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA-
MADISON VA-MINERAL WV-MONTGOMERY MD-MORGAN WV-NELSON VA-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD-
1115 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WASHINGTON DC.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT EXPECTED...ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE MOST LIKELY RISK FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER ARE
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WINCHESTER TO WASHINGTON DC BETWEEN
3 PM AND 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MANNING

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1115 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2004

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-152300-
ALBEMARLE VA-ALLEGANY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-AUGUSTA VA-BERKELEY WV-
CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA-
FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-GREENE VA-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HARFORD MD-
HIGHLAND VA-HOWARD MD-JEFFERSON WV-KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA-
MADISON VA-MINERAL WV-MONTGOMERY MD-MORGAN WV-NELSON VA-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD-
1115 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT EXPECTED...ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE MOST LIKELY RISK FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER ARE
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WINCHESTER TO WASHINGTON DC BETWEEN
3 PM AND 8 PM.

THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.

MANNING