Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1233 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

UPDATED FCST FOR SVR TSTM WATCH VALID UNTIL 6PM EDT. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS ABT STORM CVRG GIVEN LACK OF LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE GIVEN
DOWNSLOPE WRLY FLOW. BEST CVRG STILL IN EXPECTED IN THE NORTH CLOSER
TO TRACK OF MCV AND IN AREA UNDER LFQ OF UPPER JET. LOW-LVL MOISTURE
IS LIMITED WITH TDS IN THE MID 50S. ONLY FVRBL FACTOR FOR SVR IS
COLD MID-LVL TEMPS NEAR -15C SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL IN STRONGEST
STORMS.

ROSA

.LONG TERM...WED-MON
OVERALL NOT TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM. A CHC OF RW/TRW WED
AFTN AND NIGHT AS THE UPR TROF/CD FNT MV THRU THE GRT LKS W/ A
FAIRLY STG JET PROGGED OVRHD. XPCT PCPN CHC THROUGH THU EVE...AND
THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT W/
SEASONABLE TEMPS. ZNL FLOW WI CHC POPS FOR NEXT MON W/ VORT MAX
PROGGED TO MV INTO CWA. ND

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1231 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-020800-
ALBEMARLE VA-ALLEGANY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-AUGUSTA VA-BERKELEY WV-
CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA-
FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-GREENE VA-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HARFORD MD-
HIGHLAND VA-HOWARD MD-JEFFERSON WV-KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA-
MADISON VA-MINERAL WV-MONTGOMERY MD-MORGAN WV-NELSON VA-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD-
1231 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WASHINGTON DC.

.DAY ONE...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND MOVING EAST.
SOME  OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN HAS BEEN ACTIVATED. PLEASE RELAY REPORTS TO THE NWS.

ABW

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