Flash Flood Warning 91, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1105 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

...TORNADO WATCH FOR LOWER SOUTHERN MD COUNTIES AND A PORTION OF
N-CNTRL VA TIL 5PM EDT...

ITS BUSY. MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS OUR TROPICAL SYSTEM OF THE
WEEK...JEANNE. AT 14Z JEANNES CIRCULATION REMNANT CENTER WAS IS
LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN GREENSBORO AND HICKORY NC. ITS BEGINNING TO
TAKE A MORE EASTERLY BEND FROM ITS CURRENT NE TRACK. IN THE AREA
WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
COPIUS RAINFALL IS FALLING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN A DECENT
DEFORMATION ZN RESULTING FROM THE INTERACTION OF JEANNE AND A
FRONTAL ZONE. BECAUSE OF CONCERNS OVER HOW MUCH RAIN HAS ALREADY
FALLEN...HAVE BUMPED UP QPF VALUES IN THE FFA AREA FROM PREVS
PACKAGE. CONSULT LATEST FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

TRACK OF JEANNE APPEARS TO BE TAKING IT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WHIILE THIS TRACK WOULD BRING DECENT HELICITY PROFILES
ACROSS THAT AREA...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE. A DRY SLOT
ON WV IMGRY IS PUNCHING N ACROSS CNTRL VA AND WILL CLIP OUR SERN
ZNS. IF THAT REGION CAN BREAK OUT FOR A FEW HRS THERE IS A THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS HAS PROMPTED SPC TO ISSUE A TORNADO WATCH
FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN MD...THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING
ISSUED AT 1500Z.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS JEANNE CROSSES THE BAY...
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE WINDS OVER TURN SHORT TERM
FOCUS IS OBVIOUSLY ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE JEANNE...THE
CENTER OF WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF NC AT 06Z. A
COPIOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALREADY STREAMING NORTHWARD
INTO THE CWA...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL FALLING AT
06Z.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED POOR IFR/LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES. WINDS AT DCA-IAD-BWI-MTN SHOULD KEEP A NE OR E
COMPONENT THROUGH ABOUT 22Z THEN VEER TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
BY 00Z. LTO DETERIORATE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS RAIN FROM
JEANNE MOVES NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS JEANNE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD PULLS AWAY.

&&

.MARINE...SCA WINDS WILL COMMENCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER JEANNE
PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...STILL ASSESSING THE LATEST RVFPOT GUIDANCE THAT CAME IN
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A MINOR TO MODERATE
THREAT OF FLOODING ONCE ALL OF THE RAINFALL FLOWS INTO THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1000 PM EDT MDZ002>004.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1000 PM EDT VAZ027-028-030-031-040>042-051.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1000 PM EDT WVZ048>053-055.
.MARINE...SCA ALL ZONES.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SMZ
MARINE/LONG TERM/WATCHES...HTS
WARNINGS...DRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1154 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

MDZ002>004-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050-051-WVZ048>055-290900-
ALBEMARLE VA-ALLEGANY MD-AUGUSTA VA-BERKELEY WV-CLARKE VA-
CULPEPER VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA-FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-GREENE VA-
HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HIGHLAND VA-JEFFERSON WV-LOUDOUN VA-MADISON VA-
MINERAL WV-MORGAN WV-NELSON VA-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV-
RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD-
1154 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR AREAS OF MARYLAND ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...AREAS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE.

.DAY ONE...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE.
SIGNIFICANT RAINS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 10 PM. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOODING ALONG SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS. CONSULT CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
ON THE FLOOD THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE THREAT OF FLOODING ON MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED. RELAY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING.

DCZ001-MDZ005>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-281649-
ANNE ARUNDEL MD-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-CALVERT MD-
CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-HARFORD MD-
HOWARD MD-KING GEORGE VA-MONTGOMERY MD-NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-
1154 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR AREAS OF MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INCLUDING WASHINGTON DC.

.DAY ONE...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE WILL CONTINUE TO AREAS OF
RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD RANGE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES. IN
ADDITION AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A SPOTSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN CALVERT
COUNTY LINE ARE UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 5 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE THREAT OF FLOODING ON MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED. RELAY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING.

SMZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1202 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

VAZ042-281630-
LOUDOUN VA-
1202 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHERN LOUDOUN COUNTY...

AT 1202 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GLEEDSVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF
PURCELLVILLE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 1230 PM EDT.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

MANNING